Hold on, it’s coming
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What did the hosts say about the lack of a definitive Chinese fiscal stimulus plan?
Well as predicted on this very podcast last week, there was no definitive figure or plan from China about a fiscal stimulus. But there was some news, including news about when there will be more news. So it's coming. Whether markets see that as good news or the delay as a concern. Well we'll see today on the markets. Meanwhile, a relatively quiet week except for the ECB, of course, and we'll look at the PPI numbers for the US from last week. have gone from talk of a big rate cut next time to maybe missing out on one meeting. It's Mondays the fourteenth of october twenty twenty four. It's the morning call from NAP. Good morning. It was a week when we saw oil prices rising at one point six percent for WTI, one point three percent for Brent, even though both were down a bit on Friday, but commodities otherwise generally down, but iron ore rose one point seven percent on Friday, but it was down two point two percent over the week.
And it was a week when we saw bond yields rising a fair old bit. So Aussie ten year futures, for example, up almost eighteen basis points over the week. Ten year treasuries rose over thirteen basis basis points. Basis points, but actually it's the back end of the yield care where the biggest rises have been, so sixteen basis points for thirty year treasuries last week, for example. In currency markets, the biggest loser out of the majors last week was Canada. The Looney was down one point four percent, the Aussie was down naught point seven percent, whereas the US dollar uh up almost naught point four percent on the DXY. Friday was a bit different though. Most currency currencies were up for the day against a falling Japanese
It was down 0.4%, the Aussie up almost 0.2%. It's worth 67.4 US cents now. And so long as you swerve clear of China, last week was a good one for equities. The ASX 200 finished the week up 0.8%. The NICE rose 2.5%. The DAX up one put uh 1.3%, the Dow up 1.2%, the Nasdaq not far behind that. The biggest move on Friday, though, was actually US mid-caps with the Russell 2000. Climbing two point one percent for the day. The Hang Seng last week though, down six and a half percent. So let's start with China. That announcement over the weekend, I think it was Tapas predicting last week that it wouldn't amount to much.
How are the latest US PPI and CPI numbers expected to influence Fed rate‑cut decisions?
Well here's Nab Jui actual. I mean he was sort of right, wasn't he? I mean they've said that they will spend more money, there will be more government debt, but not how or how much or when or how.
Good morning, Phil. Yes, I think you can really take a glass half full or a glass half empty uh view um of what we saw on on Saturday. So, yeah, as per Tapas' remark. disappointing in the sense that we've had no um explicit mention of a a fiscal stimulus, at least as so as as far as size and type is concerned. But what we did have was um the head of uh the Ministry of Finance, Lan Foan's press conference comment that the government sees room to raise the budget deficit. So that's a very, very explicit comment. Um and going into the weekend, a lot of uh um commentary suggesting that really it wasn't in the purview of Moff to actually announce something ahead of the the next National People's Congress, which are likely to convene towards the end of the month, and that will probably be the forum that will rubber stamp um a specific um fiscal centrally central government funded fiscal stimulus and we'll also know um what the government is proposing as far as content.
In particular, whether or not you know specific support for uh for the consumer sector via handouts for those um families with more than one ch child, for example, which had been muted. So so at the moment we've got nothing. So at the It's interesting.
It's such a complete reversal for China from having had the one China policy to now supporting bigger families.
No it is. And then the other key thing, um, you know, which might not sound important but is really important, is that um the finance ministry is committed to ensuring that they do achieve this year's w um budget deficit targets.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What did the hosts say about the lack of a definitive Chinese fiscal stimulus plan?
0:01–2:06
2
How are the latest US PPI and CPI numbers expected to influence Fed rate‑cut decisions?
2:06–5:53
3
What were the key movements in global equity and commodity markets this week?
5:53–9:17
4
How is China planning to use unused local‑government funds to boost growth?
9:17–12:10
5
What does the recent RBNZ commentary suggest about future New Zealand rate cuts?
12:10–13:55
6
Which international holidays are affecting market schedules today?
13:55–14:20