How long will the fury last?
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What is Operation Epic Fury and how is it affecting oil and gas prices today?
Operation Epic Fury has hit oil and particularly gas prices, but a lot really depends on how long this goes on for. Weeks? Months? Uh polls show it's not a popular move at all for the US president, so could he want to put an end to it sooner rather than later? Well as rhetoric suggests otherwise. We'll look at how the market is reacting. Does it change anything in regards to what central banks do with interest rates this year? It's Tuesday, it's the third of March 2026. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, oil is up five point seven percent this morning for Brent, now over seventy seven a barrel, a five percent lift in WTI above seventy a barrel, natural gas up two and a half percent as well, spot gold uh only up naught point seven percent this morning, silver is actually down five point six percent, curious, isn't that?
And shares in the US were not affected a great deal by what's going on in the Middle East. The Nasdaq is up naught point four percent, the uh SP is flat, but Europe's a different sort. Story. The DAX is down two point six percent, same in Spain, two point two percent low for the Cat Carrant, one point two percent low for the FTSE one hundred, massive moves in bond yields though, ten year treasuries up twelve basis points, up ten in Canada, up fourteen for the UK, uh, and seven or eight basis points uh increase in yields across Europe for ten years. Aussie ten years were down two basis points, down two basis points yesterday, uh to four point six three percent. But ten basis points higher than that this morning on futures.
And the rush to safe havens, well, even if it's the US dollar, uh, which is up one percent on the DXY, the Swiss franc is up one point three percent. But the yen is down naught point nine percent. The Aussie, as you might expect, down naught point six percent to seventy point seven US cents. And it's Nabs Rodrigo Catrill who's with me today. Actually, out of all of that, gas seems to be the big worry, doesn't it?
Why are European gas prices up more than 50 % after the Qatar LNG plant attack?
Particularly uh for Europe. Uh Qatar shut down its liquefied natural gas production uh facility because of a drone attack. European gas prices rose more than more than fifty percent. eighty percent. And I guess the longer this goes on, then we could expect even higher prices for gas and oil, couldn't we? I wonder whether there's a bit of pricing now, because there's expectation that maybe this is just a few weeks and then things return.
Um morning fill, yes, that's exactly right. So um we have seen essentially it's uh a U turn, if you like, in in in the rates market, um because yesterday You know, when the news broke out or rather when the market opened, um, we saw ten year treasure yields move sharply lower, um, trading just uh um well below the three percent mark there to three ninety two. And now we've seen a whole repricing back up to four oh five. So linked to that is is to your point that um all of a sudden the There's a question mark around how long um energy supply is going to be affected, uh, particularly gas as well as uh as oil. Um and that's created a whole rethinking about what does this mean for the economy and in particular what does this mean for central banks reaction function.
So not only we've seen ten year trend yields move higher, um, but if we look at uh pricing expectations for central banks, um it's an interesting dynamic. Because um You know, for instance, the you know, the market was pricing sixty basis points of rate cuts for uh the Fed uh on Friday, uh and now uh they're pricing fifty. So there's a ten basis point reprice. Similarly, you look at the UK, um and if you remember the the UK everybody's kind of been or the market has been thinking, yep, they they need to do more, inflation's coming down. Um so there were fifty two basis point. Priced on Friday, now they're thirty eight. So that's a big repricing uh in in the um in the UK. Which
implies that everyone is thinking this is gonna have a l uh long term repercussions. 'Cause if you were thinking well it's going to be a week or two weeks, uh then you know, uh things would just return to normal, which is normally what happens in uh with events like this.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is Operation Epic Fury and how is it affecting oil and gas prices today?
0:01–1:47
2
Why are European gas prices up more than 50 % after the Qatar LNG plant attack?
1:47–3:52
3
How are bond yields and central‑bank rate‑cut expectations being repriced?
3:52–5:46
4
What political factors – from Trump’s approval to Iran’s stance – could prolong the conflict?
5:46–7:20
5
Are traditional safe‑haven currencies like the yen losing their protective role?
7:20–9:43
6
What do the latest US ISM manufacturing and pricing data reveal about inflation pressure?
9:43–11:34
7
How might the RBA governor’s upcoming speech address the energy‑price shock?
11:34–13:54
8
What is the long‑term outlook for inflation and growth if energy prices stay high?
13:54–15:00