Is that it for the RBA? US missing October.
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Why does NAB say the RBA’s easing cycle is over?
Well, NAB has made the call. That's it for the current easing cycle from the RBA. The recovery in the unemployment rate yesterday was the last piece of the jigsaw. But it's a tougher call for the Fed, who will continue to fly blind, because even though the government is now open, a lot of the data just won't be released. And the UK looking glummer than glum with the economy really in snooze mode. And China today, it's the big data dump. At least someone is producing numbers. It's Friday, it's the fourteenth of november twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well US equities uh much lower this morning than NASDAQ is down one point seven percent, the S P down one point two percent.
In Europe the DAX is down one point four percent as well. A half percent fall in the US dollar, the yen is down naught point three percent, a half percent rise in the euro, the pound is up naught point six percent, but the Aussie up less than naught point two percent to sixty five point five US cents, and bond yields are generally higher, up three basis points for ten years in the US, up Four in Germany, UK and France. Aussie ten years. They rose four basis points yesterday to four point four two percent. A few basis points higher than that this morning on futures. And oil is a bit higher as well. Not point seven percent for Brent, not point six percent for WTI. Brent is just over sixty three a barrel.
And now uh Ken Compton is with me today in Sydney. So uh Ken, we have to start with those unemployment numbers yesterday and the consequences of that. So falling back to four point three percent after that surprise rise to four and a half percent last time. And that's the uh the nail in the coffin, isn't it? I mean rate cuts are just not going to happen this cycle.
How did the latest Australian unemployment figures influence the RBA outlook?
Well that's certainly where the view that NAB has come around to. I mean, I wouldn't necessarily try and link n yesterday's employment report directly to that change. We we we'll talk the unemployment report for s first and then we can come back to to NAB's view, the RBA is now on hold. So um you know this this is probably a good case for uh from for my colleague Ray to get into the second decimal place on the unemployment data. But um look at in in uh the the headline number is down two tenths of one percent, so four point five to four point three. That is a bit of a bigger drop than we're expecting. But you te do you tease that apart and the unemployment rate went up you know, zero point two percent in September.
It's come down zero point one two percent in October. So we've reversed about half of that increase in the unemployment rate. But still um that's still absolutely going to be something that that validates the RBA's messaging over the course of the past uh over the past month or so that, you know, don't um Don't jump at the shadows in terms of one uh one unemployment print, which has certainly been um been our caution over the course of this year.
Whether it goes to one or two decimal places, I mean if you look at the hard numbers, more people are working, less people are actually unemployed. That was the takeout from it, wasn't it?
Yes, that that that's exactly right. So you know, you've got um yeah, forty two thousand um in increase in unemployment we sorry, increase in employment, so that that's people employed, an extra forty two thousand people employed. That's more than double the the consensus actually. Yeah, the if once again if you want to get into the into the statistical details, the sample rotation probably did flatter that outcome a bit. But still, you know, the the broad trend here is that the un the labour market is very, you know, very steadily um ver maybe very steadily weakening at best. It's certainly not um not not an accelerating de um you know ex decelerating conditions like like you might have read into that September report.
Excel.
But it would b uh um but I mean it we it wasn't this number, was it really, that was leading to the call from uh from NAB. It was the house prices, it was the inflation, all the other stuff that uh that Sally talked about yesterday.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why does NAB say the RBA’s easing cycle is over?
0:01–1:34
2
How did the latest Australian unemployment figures influence the RBA outlook?
1:34–3:47
3
What data gaps are making Fed policy decisions harder in the US?
3:47–5:44
4
Why is the UK economy described as ‘glummier than glum’?
5:44–8:00
5
What does the China “data dump” mean for global markets?
8:00–9:50
6
Which Fed speakers are pushing a more hawkish tone and why?
9:50–11:53
7
Are tech stocks rotating into energy, healthcare and consumer staples today?
11:53–13:43
8
How far does the AI race still have to go, according to the weekend edition?
13:43–14:51