Jobs data lost on the foggy highway
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Why is the non‑farm payroll data missing and how does the “data fog” affect market expectations?
Non-farm payrolls should be out today, but it's another set of data lost on the foggy highway. I thought Paul Kelly fans might like that one, but the fog reference actually comes from the feds Austin Goolsby, who's not prepared to cut when they can't see where they're going. And what data we are getting is conflicting with each other. So ADP payrolls yesterday, we talked about it, it seems strong. The challenger survey overnight showed massive job. Cuts with low hiring intentions. All that means cuts are more priced in and the mood is more risk off today. What a difference a day makes. It's Friday, it's the seventh of November twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, one point eight percent off the Nasdaq this morning and one point one percent off the S P in Europe, one point three percent off the DAX as well.
Uh, we've got a half percent fall in the US dollar, but the Aussie is down half percent on top of that as well. So where are all the gains? Well, a three quarter percent rise in the yen, a half percent rise in the pound, and naught point four percent up for the euro. And bond yields reversing the sell off that we were talking about yesterday, so yields an Another seven basis points lower for ten year treasuries, now down to four point oh eight percent, uh down just one basis point across Europe though. But Aussie ten years, they were up five basis points yesterday to four point three six percent, uh and now on futures a few basis points lower than that, and oil is down as well today, around one per cent.
So uh almost like the opposite of yesterday. Here's Nav's Taylor Newton in Sydney. Um I've got to get used to saying that, Taylor Newton in Sydney the New kid in town, uh 'cause normally in Melbourne, but ensconced in Sydney now.
What did the Challenger job‑cuts survey reveal about layoffs and hiring trends in October?
So yeah, tech stocks. Um though we had that concern, didn't we, earlier on in the week from the CEOs of some of the big banks warning against overvaluation. But then uh prices bounced back, maybe buying the dip, now they are down again. And is that because it's the same fundamental question around their valuations? Or do you think this is more to do with the Challenger Job Survey which uh came out, which was pretty bleak overnight?
Yeah, but potentially a a little bit of both, but you saw that kind of unwinding of of yesterday's move across a a number of markets. You look at US yields and it's a similar story. That rise in yields that we saw yesterday has has unwound. You've got tenure yields back around around four point uh zero eight percent at the moment, and that, you know, pricing for a December cut if you come back to the near term had kind of crept back to around sixty percent priced yesterday, it's it's back out. To around seventy percent price today and it it is those kind of you know, best of the rest labor market indicators that is that seems to be driving it. So, you know, you discussed with Rodrigo yesterday that the ADP number was, you know, a little bit stronger in in October than than what was seen in in September.
Um we've got, you know, an an alternate series from Rivelio Labs out out on Thursday that showed Uh, you know, their series are saying a a nine thousand decline for payrolls in October after a thirty three K increase the the prior months. So, you know, you average the two and you've effectively got a a a a pretty soft trend, uh that is a a continuation but not necessarily a an acceleration in in the um slower payrolls growth that we've seen. Um also getting a lot of headlines is that Challenger job uh cuts measure that that you mentioned. So they reported one hundred and fifty three thousand layoffs in October. That's the highest October month since since two thousand three. One million, yeah
To date is the scary number, which is uh sixty five percent higher than the same period last year.
Yeah, and it is certainly the case that, you know, these this Challenger Job Ads uh job cuts series can certainly generate some pretty eye popping uh, you know, year ended change numbers and you know, it is worth cautioning there that, you know, we saw and this is feeding into that year uh to date number that you mentioned as well, uh a pretty noticeable increase in the Challenger uh job cut series in in early twenty twenty five that never really translated through into a a pick
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is the non‑farm payroll data missing and how does the “data fog” affect market expectations?
0:01–1:36
2
What did the Challenger job‑cuts survey reveal about layoffs and hiring trends in October?
1:36–4:00
3
How are US equity, currency and bond markets reacting to the conflicting labour data?
4:00–6:37
4
What are the differing views of Fed officials (Goolsbee vs. John Williams) on rate cuts amid uncertain data?
6:37–8:39
5
How is the Bank of England handling rate decisions and what does the close vote indicate?
8:39–10:44
6
What does the latest Japanese labour‑market data suggest about future BoJ policy?
10:44–12:50
7
How are China’s trade figures and Canada’s unemployment rate shaping the global outlook?
12:50–14:41
8
What is the National Reconstruction Fund and how might it impact Australian innovation?
14:41–15:21