Jobs openings data shows US on go slow
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Why did the July JOLTS data cause bond yields to fall and equities to rise?
There wasn't anything particularly alarming in the latest job openings data in the United States, but it was softer, so bond yields are down, equities are up, and gold hits a new high. Also, Aussie GDP, better than expected yesterday. We'll look at what that means for the RBA, and today the US Services ISM, an important indicator of how the US economy is really shaping up, and the ADP job numbers. Normally not taken as reliable, but hey, after the last non-farm pay. Join the club. It's Thursday, it's the fourth of September 2025. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. So US shares are largely up this morning. The Dow finished at the close, only just in the ready New York, but the SP is up half a percent and a 1% rise in the Nasdaq.
Europe is all up just about 0.6% for the Eurostocks 50, half percent for the DAX, and 0.7% for the FTSE 100. The US dollar is 0.3% lower on the DXY, down to ninety-eight point one. Uh it actually got down to ninety-eight point zero one. Uh The pound has jumped back up. It's up naught point four percent. The same for the Aussie, which is almost sixty five point five US cents. The euro is up a quarter percent as well. And bond yields down today, down six basis points for ten year treasuries, down to four point one percent, and down seven basis points for thirty years, dipping down to four point eight nine percent now, having tipped over five percent again earlier in the session overnight. Uh down five basis points for ten year guilts and for ten year
Bundes in Germany, Aussie ten years. Well, they were up six basis points yesterday to four point four one percent today. They are not really moving that much further down on futures, only down one basis point. And oil down two and a half percent for WTI, two point two percent for Brent, Brent below sixty seven sixty a bow now. Let's talk about whether OPEC plus is gonna up production at their forthcoming meeting. Uh and gold up again, another one percent. Take comics gold to three thousand. Which is another new record high. So markets moved mainly on uh Jolt's data overnight. Here's NABS Ray Atral.
How are the latest US job openings affecting expectations for the upcoming non‑farm payroll report?
I mean, it wasn't alarming, uh, but you know, it uh but it wasn't great either. You know, it wasn't alarmingly good, it wasn't alarmingly bad. But I guess uh people are sort of saying, well, this reinforces the the the last non farm payrolls data that um we know, but maybe we'll see at the end of the week that it's it's just not gonna move a great deal.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. But um yeah, at uh as I say the the level of job openings is down it's about down about two hundred thousand. So quite a reasonable miss relative to seven point two, and uh yeah, and we did have a um a downward revision as well to the prior months numbers. So uh unequivocally yeah, quite a weak number, although things like the quits rate uh has held pretty steady at around uh around two percent. So you know, I think sort of one takeaway is it It certainly seems to increase the likelihood that in the non fund payrolls numbers on Friday we will see the unemployment rate tick up. We've already mentioned the fact that the rounding barrier um to go from four point two to four point three is pretty low given that it was close to four and a quarter percent last month.
So I think that sort of you know helps tip the balance towards that, which is the consensus and it's not completely out of the question that the unemployment rate could uh could tick up to to four point four percent. So you know, certainly didn't go uh unnoticed as far as markets are concerned and probably should add that it came out later in the day. We've also had the Fed's beige book and that um that looks very beige I'd have to say with Yeah.
Yeah, uh really an economy treading water, wasn't it? I mean that was of all twelve districts, all of them said little or no change, basically.
That's right. In either in activity or also in employment and um also, you know, um, you know, flat to declining, you know, real inc uh consumption side of the economy with real incomes being cited really.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
Why did the July JOLTS data cause bond yields to fall and equities to rise?
0:01–1:58
2
How are the latest US job openings affecting expectations for the upcoming non‑farm payroll report?
1:58–5:33
3
What does the drop in job openings by sector (arts, entertainment, mining) reveal about US consumer spending?
5:33–8:37
4
Why is the number of job openings now below the stock of unemployed for the first time since 2021?
8:37–12:23
5
How might slower US population growth impact the labour market and economic outlook?
12:23–15:46
6
What are the implications of the US Services ISM and new‑orders data for the rest of the quarter?
15:46–17:24