Lots to be thankful for
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Why are New Zealand’s retail sales and business confidence surprising this week?
Well, Thanksgiving might not be as big in Australia, New Zealand as it is in the United States, but there's plenty to be thankful for with New Zealand bouncing back in the latest retail numbers and business confidence. Whilst we've seen private CapEx shoot up in Australia, so good news, unless you want interest rates to come down. Forget about that, it seems. But the US gets back to work today, but only half a day, so a quiet day ahead with just a sprinkling of data. It's Friday, it's the twenty eighth of November twenty twenty four. five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. So not much movement in the US dollar today. It's been up and down, but in a low trading range, and no movement in US equities or bonds because it's Thanksgiving.
So the markets have been closed. But the Aussie dollar is up naught point two percent. And even though that's not much, that's actually one of the bigger currency moves today, up to sixty-five point three US cents. Not much going on with European equities. Uh the NICAI yesterday uh was up one and a quarter percent. UK ten-year bond. We're up three basis points, correcting some of the moves down that we saw on budget day. Aussie ten years, and we're down three basis points yesterday to four point four nine percent, but this morning up one basis point, and that's all, but uh up to four and a half percent. Oil up a bit, gold down a bit, Bitcoin up one point two percent and getting over ninety one thousand, but still down almost ninet uh twenty percent for the for the month so far.
Uh so here's Nabs. Sally Ald. Uh some optimism for Australia, it's fair to say. Private new CapEx expenditure up six point three percent quarter on quarter.
What does the 6.3% jump in Australian private CapEx tell us about the economy?
Uh I tell you you've got to go back many years to try and see that much growth in one quarter, haven't you?
Yeah, absolutely. It sort of takes us back to the uh good old days of the the mining boom at the beginning of uh this century. Uh so super strong number, uh particularly plant and equipment, and that's the bit that feeds directly into the GDP report. That was up uh eleven and a half percent. Um what was driving that was basically media, telecoms um and information services. And so if we look at that one. One component, uh that that's basically just gone vertical on the chart and that lifted by almost ninety-two percent in the quarter, driven by uh data centers. So this dynamic uh that we've seen, you know, quite entrenched in the US where the spend on AI related CapEx has really boosted growth growth um is now starting to emerge as a driver over here in Australia as well.
Uh Somewhat surprisingly, I suspect. Um and so non mining investment was up almost nine percent in the quarter. So These numbers come on the back of what were some really solid construction work done numbers uh the day before and sort of telling us that the investment side of the GDP stories uh running much hotter than we had in our numbers and so I think signalling some genuine upside risks to uh the third quarter GDP number.
So no one no one can be expecting the RBA to be doing anything now. I mean i i it really does point to that if it's gonna be anything it's gonna be up story, doesn't it?
Absolutely. So I think, you know, we've we've definitely put to bed the story that the next move in rates is down. That's that's no longer uh that's no longer happening. And I think what's really interesting about these GDP numbers, and look, there's a little bit more data to come before we firm up the forecasts, you know, data on net exports and government spending and investment and inventories. Uh so we'll see which way they they swing over coming days. But I think what we'd be looking at here is, you know, even if that number comes in, even if you just get a a point six, um, which is the same number we got in the in the second quarter, it's telling you that at a six month annualized rate, the economy's at trend or possibly even a little bit higher.
How are rising Aussie‑10‑year yields reshaping the bond market outlook?
So um and this is the issue for the reserve bank at the moment, and this is the I guess one of the challenges of the soft landing uh is that there just isn't a lot of spare capacity in the economy and so
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are New Zealand’s retail sales and business confidence surprising this week?
0:01–1:32
2
What does the 6.3% jump in Australian private CapEx tell us about the economy?
1:32–3:40
3
How are rising Aussie‑10‑year yields reshaping the bond market outlook?
3:40–6:04
4
Why are tech companies issuing record corporate bonds to fund AI‑driven capex?
6:04–8:17
5
What does the recent RBNZ rate cut and front‑end sell‑off mean for New Zealand investors?
8:17–10:24
6
How will APRA’s new 20% cap on high‑debt‑to‑income loans affect Australia’s housing market?
10:24–13:08
7
What are the ECB’s divided views on inflation risk and future rate moves?
13:08–14:55
8
How is AI changing Thanksgiving recipe traffic and what does it mean for food bloggers?
14:55–16:12