Lousy Timing
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Why did Trump’s tariff announcement create ‘lousy timing’ for the podcast?
So we are publishing this just before Trump's tariff speech. So you probably know more than we do. Lousy timing for us. But obviously he wanted to wait until after the market closed. So whatever he says or has said, the uncertainty continues. We'll talk about that today. And the market reaction during the build-up as well. Plus, ADP payrolls for the United States, the ISM services number today. But mainly it's the aftermath of Liberation Day. It's Thursday. Today it's the third of April 2025. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar has been falling all session down over naught point four percent now to just below one hundred and three point nine of the DXY. The Aussie is up a quarter percent, the pound is up naught point four percent, up naught point six percent for the euro.
Uh the Aussie now just below sixty three US cents. The Japanese yen though, that's falling. It's down a third of one per cent. Uh US equities have been rising for quite a bit of the session today, finishing up naught point nine percent for the Nasdaq at closed, not point seven percent For the SP and 0.6% for the Dow, whereas in Europe they are down, a third of one percent off the Eurostocks fifty, the FTSE one hundred as well, and not point seven percent down for the DAX. Ten year treasury yields up three basis points, up three in Canada as well, up four in Germany, and uh up three across much of the rest of Europe, up just one basis point though in the UK.
What were the key market moves in currencies and equities before the US close?
Aussie ten years yesterday, we were up one basis point to four point four one percent on future. Just one basis point higher than that, so not moving as much as the rest of the world, it seems, and oil is higher. Uh 0.9% up for WTI, 0.8% up for Brent, which is just over 75 a barrel. Meanwhile, a 0.7% rise in gold. So that is what's happening. Before Donald Trump talks, Rodrigo Cotrill joins me this morning. Do you know it feels like we are providing the Channel 9 coverage for the Melbourne Cup, but we stopped the broadcast just before. Before the race starts, uh because we published the final version of this podcast at the market close in the United States, which is when Donald Trump announces his task.
So we can't hang on uh to hear what he has to say. So th there is the de the problem that a lot of our audience today, Rodrigo, know more than we do. So I don't know how how we get around that. But what we can look at is the market reaction and the build up to it all, uh which seems to be uh you know, read the tea leaves. Good for the U reading the equity markets. Good for the US, bad for Europe. Uh we're certainly seeing that in equities, but that's not always been the way the markets reacted. But right on the deadline, that's what they've done today. Yeah. So
Um in terms of the market reaction, probably a few things to to highlight that um given the level of uncertainty um I will be cautious to sort of use the the reaction on to today as a guide in terms of what to expect. Um there there's you know obviously uh listeners would have known more than what we know today or at the moment.
How did the US equity rally compare to European market declines?
Um but certainly one of the news um in terms of um the market reaction is because been quite volatile price action overnight. We've seen ten years yields trading a in a ten basis point range down to four eleven, four ten and now back up again. Um And then they're ending up higher than where they were before. And and similarly equity markets opened lower and then recovered quite significantly. Um so there's been a few speculations around what the tariffs will entail and what they will look like, and that appears to have uh helped a little bit in terms of sentiment. Um but but some But now even
though some people will know that, the next question is what is going to be the response? And we and we you know, we're he and some of that might take some time. And a whole load of varied stories about that. China, for example, has said they may may respond by stopping Chinese companies from investing in the United States. But it seems like everybody is saying we're not going to react straight away, we're gonna let things cool down, we're gonna assess the situation and then we're gonna strike.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did Trump’s tariff announcement create ‘lousy timing’ for the podcast?
0:01–1:18
2
What were the key market moves in currencies and equities before the US close?
1:18–2:47
3
How did the US equity rally compare to European market declines?
2:47–4:04
4
What potential Chinese retaliation was discussed and why?
4:04–5:43
5
How might Trump’s tariffs impact US growth and inflation?
5:43–7:12
6
What did Larry Summers say about the Fed’s dilemma after the tariffs?
7:12–9:09
7
How are ADP payrolls and the ISM services index shaping the economic outlook?
9:09–11:09
8
What are the expected scenarios for the US dollar and market volatility?
11:09–12:01