Mixed Messages
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Is the Iran‑U.S. conflict likely to end soon or drag on for months?
So this war, is it gonna drag on for six months or is it almost over? Has Iran agreed to get rid of its enriched uranium? Donald Trump has said so. But if it's all so close, why is oil higher again today? Plus, mixed data from the United States as well. The base book says it's pretty much wait and see right now, and that's holding back investment. But the Philly Fed manufacturing index has had quite an uptick. So what do we believe? It's Friday. Today is the seventeenth of April twenty twenty six. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar is a little stronger this morning up naught point two percent on the DXY, the Aussie is down naught point two percent, the same for the Euro, very small moves in equities, the S P largely flat, the Nasdaq is actually down, but just a little bit.
In Europe, a naught point four percent rise in the DAX, but a slight fall in the Eurostocks fifty. And small moves in bond yields too, so ten year treasure yields are up a couple of basis points, but most of Europe down. By just one basis point, except for the UK, which is up three basis points for 10 year guilt yields. And oil is a bit higher, 4.5% added to Brent, which is over 99 a barrel now. Actually, 99.80 at one point, so just shying away from $100. WTI is up 3.7% as well. Why? Well, it is another day with not much getting through the Straits of Hormuz, obviously. Here's NAB Sky Masters. So this rise in oil. Uh is in part because there were Bloomberg reports that Arab leaders from the Gulf and European leaders reckon that it's going to take six months for the US and Iran to reach a peace deal, so they think the ceasefire should be extended further.
Why are Brent and WTI crude prices jumping despite mixed war news?
That did push oil higher, but President Trump says that they're close to a deal. He doesn't think they need to extend beyond the uh the two week extension. Uh and uh, you know, it's all gonna be over very soon. Hence, I guess We don't know what's happening, therefore not a lot of market movement overnight.
Yeah, good morning. Good morning, Phil. And and I think your your point around there is, you know, we don't really know how this conflict is is going to unfold or or un unravel. There's still a sort of a whole lot of unknowns around um how the two the two countries can get together and and come up with a peace deal given Um, you know, what what each is after, they're still far, far away from um uh you know you know, what each are demanding seems to be quite far apart. Uh and you know, as as you said, there was that That Bloomberg report about sort of Arab and European leaders suggesting that a you know peace deal could take up to six months to be agreed upon. In addition, I read that the Washington Post has reported that the US is sending thousands of additional troops to the Middle East to pressure Tehran to make a deal, while the commander of Iran's joint military headquarters has said that prolonging the US blockade at the Strait of Meuse was a prelude to
reach of the ceasefire. So I guess no surprise that on the back of those headline um or news headlines that you did see a bit of a spike higher in oil prices overnight. So, you know, my read WTI and Brent are currently up around around four percent.
So what's not happening is when Donald because there's been he's been saying a few things in the last couple of hours as well, um well first of all there's the whole thing about this this ten day ceasefire uh between Lebanon and Israel, uh although he didn't mention Hezbollah, so I'm not quite sure what how meaningful that is. But he says Lebanon and Israel are gonna come together to try and broker a peace deal at the White House. Uh so but on the deal with uh with Iran, he says, you know, it's very close, uh, which means free oil for the United States and f a free straight free oil. So he says oil prices are gonna go lower than they were before after all of this is concluded. He's also said in the last few hours Iran has agreed to turn over its enriched Urania U and uranium
Uh I mean that's all saying war is over, but markets are not taking the bait, they're just ignoring him.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Is the Iran‑U.S. conflict likely to end soon or drag on for months?
0:01–1:36
2
Why are Brent and WTI crude prices jumping despite mixed war news?
1:36–4:04
3
What does the surprising Philly Fed manufacturing surge tell us about U.S. activity?
4:04–6:05
4
Are the latest U.S. jobless‑claims numbers signalling a stronger labour market?
6:05–7:52
5
Did President Trump’s claim of an imminent Iran deal move oil markets?
7:52–10:03
6
How did Australia’s April unemployment data affect RBA rate‑hike expectations?
10:03–12:24
7
Why is China’s Q1 GDP growth strong while retail sales and industrial output weaken?
12:24–14:28
8
Are European central banks adopting a ‘wait‑and‑see’ stance after recent inflation data?
14:28–16:12