Nervous
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Why are markets nervous ahead of NVIDIA earnings?
So markets are nervous ahead of NVIDIA earnings, but there's still 24 hours to go. But tech stocks hit hard today. And ahead of non-farm payrolls, the latest ADP weekly numbers show job numbers are falling. Meanwhile, the RBA minutes, anything interesting? We'll tell you today. And the Aussie Wage Price Index later on as well, as well as UK CPI. It's Wednesday, it's the 19th of November 2025. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Further falls in US equities today, a one point four percent drop in the Nasdaq, the SP down almost 0.8%. Same deal for Europe with a 1.9% fall in the Eurostocks fifty and the CAC current. 1.7% lower for the DAX. Not much happening with currencies or bond markets. Canadian and UK ten year bonds are a couple of basis points higher.
That's just about all. Aussie ten years Aussie ten years fell four basis points yesterday. Down to four point four four per cent, this morning up to four point four five percent, that's all. And here's NABS Grail. Uh so really just equities for market moves. And um yes, the we've got US consumer discretionaries down two and a half per cent, IT down two per cent.
What did the latest equity moves reveal about US and European markets?
Uh but there's a bit of nervousness because we are a day away from NVIDIA earnings. A lot seems to be resting on this report, doesn't it? The VIX index, I should say, as well, almost got up to twenty six earlier, which is uh the highest it's been since April. So that shows just how nervous markets are.
Yeah, good morning Phil. At uh certainly equities are the only game in town. Um certainly as you say, currents is uh um not doing very much. So we're we're used to talking about the Aussie dollar being the so called whipping boy whenever risk sentiment goes off, but that's actually not really been the case. Actually the yen is the weakest currency, which is also interesting. Maybe we can touch on that uh momentarily. But um yeah, the stock drop, um as always scouting around for exp explanation. And as you mentioned, consumer discretion is Home Depot took a little bit of a hit after disappointing earnings reports. I think we've got Walmart and Target coming up in the next twenty-four hours or so. So it's not just the AI story, although I did see that the latest um Bank of America investor survey uh was out um in the last twelve hours or so.
Um and in terms of the um terms of the so-called tail risk. risks. Um, you know, AI valuations figures very, very largely, I think a net forty five percent of investors citing it as their biggest concern regarding tail risks for markets, followed incidentally by a potential disorderly rise in bond yields and then inflation figured third. She
But um they're very much in uh lowly second and third place after that AI won't be Very much. Well
everyone's got their fingers in the pie, haven't they? I mean if if it if it comes c crashing down, I mean everyone's gonna suffer. So that would explain the discretionary Yes,
potentially. I think it is that thing because it's such a big weight in the index and from a sort of wealth effect point of view, if the AI sector's not doing well, then you know obviously it it drags the broader markets down with it, and then potentially you get concerns about uh you know, wealth effects. Over here we t we tend to think about housing prices as being the primary source of wealth. So you know, consumption can be a function of uh of of how the housing market is doing as as a sort of a wealth factor, but it In the US it's very much stocks, isn't it? So um Yeah, so that's the only thing that I've seen that sort of explain it. But again, um you know, we have got a little bit of reversal going on, so if you look at the intraday moves at the moment, we're very much off the lows coming into the last few years of trade.
Well and particularly if you look at where Bitcoin's been, 'cause that had a bad first half of the session and then it picked up a bit. It's now at one point four percent, but it did get below ninety thousand US dollars, which uh is uh that since the high on the twenty seventh of October, that's down almost nineteen percent, even allowing for the uh climb back up today.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
Why are markets nervous ahead of NVIDIA earnings?
0:01–1:11
2
What did the latest equity moves reveal about US and European markets?
1:11–3:52
3
How are AI‑related tail‑risk concerns influencing investor sentiment?
3:52–7:52
4
What do the recent ADP and non‑farm payroll trends indicate for the labour market?
7:52–12:37
5
What insights did the RBA minutes provide about capacity constraints and inflation?
12:37–14:45