No big deal, but softer US CPI.
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What is the overall market outlook for US equities this Thursday?
Well, it's generally good news today, although we're not seeing it reflected in equities which are down in the US. But uh it looks like a deal has been done between the US and China, at least a partial deal, although it doesn't change the tariffs. Maybe that's why markets aren't too excited about it. Uh but US CPI came in softer than expected. So does that mean the Fed can cut a little faster? Well, no signs of that either. But are we seeing that the effects on tariffs so far are not as far reaching as we imagined. Uh we'll ask that question today. It's the morning call for this Thursday morning, the twelfth of june twenty twenty five. Good morning. Well, big moves up in oil today, a four and a half percent lift in WTI, three point nine percent for Brent, which is now less than fifty cents off seventy dollars a barrel, which is the highest since early April, uh, over fears about what is going to happen next in the Middle East with the US evacuating its embassy staff from Iraq.
After talks seemingly stalled on a a nuclear deal with Iran, Donald Trump thinks a deal's not gonna be reached. So we'll see what happens next there. But It's hit uh oil prices. US stocks aren't going anywhere either. Well, except for down the Nasdaq down half a percent, a 0.3% fall in the SP at close, the Dow is flat as well, the Russell 2000 closed down 0.4%. Shares down in Europe too. The CAT current is down 0.4%, so is the Eurostocks fifty. The DAX closed down almost 0.2% lower, but the FTSE one hundred up 0.1% and a half per cent fall in the US dollar. It's now it's down to ninety eight point six on the D XY, but the Aussie is also down by a quarter percent to just over sixty five US cents. The pound is up naught point four percent, the euro up half a percent.
How are rising oil prices influencing global equity markets today?
US bond yields are six basis points lower for ten years, but uh up one basis point across much of Europe, including the UK, uh two in a couple of countries. And Aussie ten years well they were up to four point two eight percent yesterday, now down Six basis points from that this morning. So Nab Sali Ald is with me today. So uh maybe not a deal in Iraq, but a deal has been seemingly reached between the US and China, subject to approval by the two presidents. But um it seems like one of them is happy with it. Uh in block capitals, a social media post from Donald Trump, full magnets and any necessary rare earths will be supplied at for the first time. front by China. Likewise we will provide to China what was agreed to include Chinese students using our colleges and universities, which has always been very good for me.
That's the story, not a big market response to it though.
Yeah, that's right. So I mean I think we're just basically back to where we were uh when the two sides met in Geneva uh last month. So we we've sort of agreed to what we already agreed to. Um and that's really, you know, a a sense that China is going to restart exports of rare earths to the US and the US is going to lift some of their export controls around uh tech uh inputs and also I think inputs into the manufacture of aeroplanes. Yeah, well that's an
that's an interesting one, isn't it? Because supplying jet aircraft uh jet engines for aircraft, I mean China is really pushing ahead with its uh aircraft production, you know, so that uh they can try and get some of the business away from from Boeing. So I don't know they I mean not a trade analyst, but it seems like uh uh you know, not a smart move uh if for a man who's very big on protectionism. And
like you said, you know, students allowed to come uh from China back into the the US. So y you know, I think all all we've really done is put things back on track. No change to those tariff rates that were agreed uh back in Geneva. And so I guess maybe that's why markets have have sort of shrugged their shoulders and and you know you know, move moved on because it doesn't feel like at the end of the day there was much in the way of uh new news from the agreement in London overnight.
Well yeah, so those tariffs and again he put that in a you know in what on his truth social uh we are getting fifty five percent tariffs, China is getting ten percent, relationship is excellent.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the overall market outlook for US equities this Thursday?
0:01–1:38
2
How are rising oil prices influencing global equity markets today?
1:38–3:53
3
What are the key details of the new US‑China rare‑earths trade agreement?
3:53–5:37
4
Why did the May US CPI come in softer than expected?
5:37–7:10
5
Are tariff effects starting to show up in consumer‑price categories?
7:10–9:07
6
Will the softer CPI give the Federal Reserve room to cut rates sooner?
9:07–10:37
7
What can the upcoming US PPI numbers tell us about inflation trends?
10:37–12:28
8
How might the UK’s new spending review and GDP outlook affect markets?
12:28–14:10