No Going Back

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NAB Morning Call 13 min 2 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 18 days ago
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What did President Trump say at Davos about Greenland and why does it matter?

Phil Dobbie 0:01
President Trump won't take military action to win Greenland, but his Davos address makes it clear he's not backing down either. So more tariffs seems inevitable. Markets relatively calm this morning, but there's no big retracement either, particularly in gold that continues to hit new highs. Whilst locally today, Aussie employment data is out this morning. It's Thursday, it's the 22nd of January 2026. It's the morning call from NAV. Good morning. Well, not much going on with the US dollar this morning. All with bonds today, but the Aussie dollar is up to uh naught point three percent, uh to almost sixty-seven point six US cents, a half percent falling the Swiss franc. Aussie ten year bond yields are almost up to four point eight percent.
Phil Dobbie 0:43
Japanese bonds recovered a little, ten year uh JGB's falling seven basis points to two point two eight percent, uh bigger falls in longer dated bonds, and US stocks are up a little. Well the NASD Stack is pretty flat, but a quarter percent rise in the SP. That is against, of course, a fall of more than 2% yesterday, and the DAX is down 0.6% this morning, and a very small upward movement in the price of oil. Gold is up another 1% to another new high, but a 2.4% fall in silver, and Bitcoin down further, down almost 8% in the last five days in US dollar terms. And here's NABS Taylor Newton. So President Trump has said that he won't use military action in his address at Davos, but he does want Greenland.

How are gold, silver and Bitcoin reacting to the latest geopolitical tensions?

Phil Dobbie 1:26
He said there can be no going back on that everyone agrees, which presumably means then we are stuck to a battle fought with tariffs unless Europe relents, but I can't see that happening. Uh but markets have you know, apart from as I said, gold pushing higher, markets have calmed down a bit from in response to all of this, haven't they?
Taylor Nugent 1:44
Yeah, that's right. Good morning, Phil. So Trump at at Davos, I think that what what you mentioned there, that comment he said that I don't have to use force, I don't want to use force, I won't use force, um, in in reference to to Greenland. So that was, you know, reasonably clear and and emphatic. Um and so I think that was seen as, you know, on the on the positive side. Um, but it certainly doesn't mean that this is going away and that the kind of resolve to um you know to uh take uh Greenland and and reiterating that, you know, Trump's view is that the US is the the only one that can um can defend it. Um and so that um you know that desire to um to control Greenland is still very
Phil Dobbie 2:28
much alive um days. There is no there's an interesting point made in on Bloomberg today that if markets don't respond a lot to um Trump's latest activity, whatever it might be, uh because of this assumption of the of the taco trade If there isn't that market response, then there's less reason for Donald Trump to retrace his steps because there's not been a big market response, which is normally uh what forces him to uh to take that taco approach.
Taylor Nugent 2:54
No, exactly. A bit of a a chicken or egg situation, isn't it? You don't you may not get the back down because you don't see it in markets, but you're not seeing it in markets because people are expecting some um some backdowns. So, you know, we're gonna have to see how this resolves, obviously, but those kind of tariff threats are are still there. We got confirmation, you know, no surprises, but um confirmation that the European Union is um the European Parliament there is is freezing the the ratification.

What are the ECB officials saying about tariffs, inflation and growth?

Taylor Nugent 3:20
So, you know, stopping the implementation of that earlier US Europe uh trade deal that would kind of lower uh European tariffs on some US imports. Um, you know, this is still bubbling bubbling along, certainly. Um, but you know, on the day, as you say, kind of you know, US equities a little bit higher, they were up almost 1% at one point shortly after the speech and did um did retrace from from um from those earlier gains, um, but certainly not extending the losses that that we saw yesterday.
Phil Dobbie 3:49
And if Europe does get hit with more tariffs, well uh Christine Lagarde doesn't seem that concerned about it.

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