No talk, no sock puppet
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Why are the US‑Iran peace talks stalled and what does the deadline mean for markets?
Well right now we don't know whether the US and Iran will get together for peace talks. Nothing has happened so far, and JD Vance has been spotted overnight in Washington. But the deadline for a resolution is supposedly tonight. So what gives? Is it a take home moment? Markets are a bit risk-off, but not massively so. It's Wednesday, it's the twenty second of April twenty twenty six. It's the morning call from Nav. Good morning. Oil prices have risen again, up three percent for Brent Crude up to ninety eight fifty a barrel. Actually it almost touched a hundred, ninety nine ninety five was the top price today. WTI also up by two point four percent. The US dollar has climbed a fair bit today. It's up a third of one percent.
The Aussie is down naught point four percent to around seventy one point five US cents now. The euro is down half a per cent. And bond yields are higher, up four basis points for ten year treasuries, up five for ten. year Gilts in the UK, up five in France as well, and two basis points higher for ten year bunds in Germany. And equities are down half percent off the SP and the Nasdaq, one percent off the FTSE 100, a bit more for the CAC current, uh the DAX is down just 0.6%. Uh so definitely a bit of risk off. Uh here's Nab's Gavian friend. Well it is deadline day to day isn't it? By tonight the ceasefire supposedly comes to an end. And we don't know still uh whether Iran and the US are going to have peace talks in Pakistan.
Actually, Iran is now saying that they won't, and we know the um the w the J.D. Vance is still in the US, he's been spotted in Washington. But the US has uh put the president has said, you know, they've got no choice because otherwise the bombing will start again.
How are oil, the US dollar and bond yields reacting to the Middle‑East tension?
Well you look at the the market reaction, the market isn't expecting bombing to start tonight. Is it? Otherwise we'd be seeing far more violent swings.
Yeah, yeah, morning, Phil. That's correct. Although, you know, over the day Uh sentiment has clearly deteriorated. Um you know, higher oil prices, a higher dollar, higher yields as you mentioned. Um and um and lower stocks and that y we started the day with stocks uh in positive territory so they've d they've deteriorated as the session has gone on. The New York Times reported that Vance put his trip on hold, but he could uh pig it up at a moment's notice. Uh and to your point, Iran has informed th this is just in Iran informed uh uh the US via Pakistan the mediators that it won't attend the talks Wednesday and Axios is now saying that Vance's trip. uh to Pakistan has been postponed indefinitely. So a as one side comes in, the next side raises, you know, the the stakes even further because they're both
using brinkmanship. Um I think your your initial observation that if this if if investors thought this was really off, we'd see a more violent reaction is right. You know, investors, you know, are still on the side of thinking this will get extended. You know, clear clearly they're not going to be able to meet by the, you know, uh an and agree something by the official end of the ceasefire. And so that's why people Which is a little bit more. It'll get it'll get extended maybe a couple of weeks. Yeah. Um so we've got another Twenty four hours of uh of of this to and froing. Um and it could come
We could get moments where it gets worse.
What is the impact of the risk‑off sentiment on global equities and currencies?
So the the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is also looking very shaky. I mean Israel says Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel, so you know whether that means that'll that'll fire up again. Uh so n so none of this is uh definitive, is it? But I just wonder whether if there's no resolution, if you say it's a couple of weeks, right? So we're we're stuck where we are, there's nothing getting through the Straits of Hormuz. A couple of weeks could become a couple of months. At what point do we get repricing because we just are all getting by with far less oil?
We are, we are, and there's plenty of reports, you know, they've been doing the rounds in the last few days that it's it it's a it's a two or three week period really before stuff get starts getting, you know, noticeably tighter.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are the US‑Iran peace talks stalled and what does the deadline mean for markets?
0:01–1:38
2
How are oil, the US dollar and bond yields reacting to the Middle‑East tension?
1:38–3:15
3
What is the impact of the risk‑off sentiment on global equities and currencies?
3:15–5:45
4
Will the cease‑fire deadline be extended and how could that affect oil supply?
5:45–7:46
5
How are US retail sales and gasoline prices driving the latest inflation data?
7:46–9:55
6
Why does Kevin Warsh claim he isn’t a ‘sock‑puppet’ for the President and what does that mean for Fed independence?
9:55–12:14
7
What do the latest UK unemployment and New Zealand CPI numbers tell us about global labour markets?
12:14–14:26
8
How might the RBNZ and Bank of England adjust policy in response to rising inflation and energy costs?
14:26–15:57