Not Good Enough?

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NAB Morning Call 14 min 2 speakers 2 chapters transcribed 19 days ago
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Why did NVIDIA’s profit surge fail to satisfy investors?

Phil Dobbie 0:01
Beating revenue expectations and promising a stellar year ahead. That wasn't enough for NVIDIA investors. Why is that? Plus, Iran talks are ongoing, but if headway isn't made, will President Trump put all that military hardware to use sooner rather than later? The Pentagon Pizza Index has been uh quite a bit higher this week. Plus, Aussie CapEx has slowed. All of that is coming up. It's Friday, it's the 27th of February 2026. The morning call from Nab. Good morning. Big falls in equities, particularly the Nasdaq, which is down one point seven percent or one percent drop in the S P. But in Europe, the DAX and the FTSE one hundred both closed up around naught point four percent. The the US dollar has climbed back up a quarter percent this morning as well, a little over ninety-seven point nine one on the DXY, the Aussie down naught point six percent, below seventy point eight US cents now, the pound down a little more than that, the euro down just not point three percent.
Phil Dobbie 0:55
Uh And the yen, well, staying in line with the US dollar today and moves down in bond yields, down three basis points for ten year treasuries, down four basis points for ten year Gilts in the UK, down uh two for Bundes. Aussie ten years finished the day off yesterday at four point seven percent this morning on futures, down a couple of basis points from that. And oil rising today, one point six percent higher for WTI, one point eight percent for Brent, which is over seventy. A bower now. Spot gold hasn't moved much, but but of course it has risen about six percent over the last six sessions, and Comic Silver so volatile, it's down four point seven percent today. Uh here's Nab's Gavin friend from London.
Phil Dobbie 1:33
So big hits to tech stocks, NVIDIA shares down over four and a half percent today. And you know, but they beat expectations on their quarterly revenue, uh a mere forty three billion dollars, and they They've got a bullish outlook. What do investors want?
Gavin Friend 1:48
Yeah, morning, Phil. Yeah, I as you say a strong set of numbers, ninety-four percent increase in profits, record sales, revenue up seventy-three percent, margins up seventy-five percent, an outlook that was better again than the streets expected, and a positive response from analysts. But uh it got the the uh the Shania Twain I th that that don't impress me much kind of response from the market. It is difficult, isn't it? I think also Earlier in the day there was a little bit of uh I guess pessimism over some results from Salesforce. They were a decent set of uh results, but it was the outlook that was described as lacklustre. But the
Phil Dobbie 2:27
crazy the crazy thing is the Salesforce share prices up though. So they Well
Gavin Friend 2:30
Well, yeah, so initially initially in pre market trading it was down about three percent on that, even though they'd announced a healthy buyback, which tells you they think the shares are good value. But then there was a competition. That's probably
Phil Dobbie 2:41
what that's probably what pushed the price up then.
Gavin Friend 2:43
Or well, there was a conference call today, and actually the analysts are saying the outlook looking forward looks pretty good. They it seems to have changed, right? And so and so they the the the the call today seems to have persuaded analysts that actually things are not so bad. Don't forget don't forget, Salesforce has been one of these companies that's been the sort of poster child on lightning rod for anxieties over so-called SaaS companies, you know, in terms of the anxiety. Anxieties over AI and what have you. And so I mean it it's good news that it's it's come back on this guidance. So
Phil Dobbie 3:15
And NVIDIA's guidance was positive as well. I think it's part of it. So it I was reading on Bloomberg, they uh their purchase obligations this year are ninety five billion. Uh they were sixteen billion last year. So I mean that th that means they're exposed if demand slides. So maybe that's part of the concern. It's just the the sheer scale of it, isn't it? It is, it is. It it's and the numbers are so large, it's t difficult to get your head around, isn't it? Yeah, it is. And Jensen Horang, the CEO of NVIDIA, is going to be talking at the Morgan Stanley Technology Conference in San Fran on March the sixteenth.

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