Not so fast!
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Why are global economists warning of a slowdown despite mixed US data?
More signs of a weakening global economy, although the lack of US data means we can't be definitive about that. But a big fall in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey on Friday, and a fall in China's exports in October as well. Not a slowdown, absolute turnaround. But Canada saw unemployment fall, yet even that isn't as good news as it first appears. But for us, well, the Aussie labor market data this week is the most interest, alongside the Nab Business Survey of course. It's Monday, it's the tenth of November twenty twenty six, is the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well the US dollar was down uh a bit the second half of last week, but fairly quiet for currencies on Friday. But over the week, the Kiwi dollar down one point seven percent, the Aussie down naught point eight percent.
They fed the worst out of all the currencies last week. The Nasdaq lost naught point two percent on Friday, it was down three percent over the week. But the NICE, which has been rising fairly sharply lately, fell sharply, down four percent over the week last week. Small moves in bond yields, uh the exception being uh the Canadian uh ten years on Friday up seven basis points. We'll talk about why that is in a moment. And oil up a little on Friday as well. But down two point two percent for Brent over the week, uh down to sixty three sixty a barrel. But iron ore down four point six percent last week, two and a half percent of that on Friday. So does that all spell a slowdown? Is that what's happening? Let's talk.
Nabs Rodrigo Catrill in Sydney because he's up early and he's with us now. So yeah, I mean we've got uh shares subdued. Uh we've got a consumer survey for the United States, the Michigan Consumer Survey, which was much weaker. We've got uh exports from China much weaker as well.
How is the US government shutdown influencing consumer sentiment and markets?
So is it fair to say the global economy is slowing? It looks like all the signs. Um
Um yeah th th this well if we sort of digest each of them, uh there's always the caveats, right? But when it comes to the consumer sentiment, the Michigan one, the Um not criticism but observation being made in in recent times is that the surveys moved on to online responses and and there's been a significant decline in terms of level of responses. Um and then of course we've had now or we the US is enduring the longest government shutdown in history. Um and that has affected also sentiment. Um so So the downbeat uh from the sentiment, um you know, you could justify it a little bit um by by what's gone on the political front. Um but when you look at the detail It just
it was down from fifty eight point six down a fifty two point two, so it's still over fifty, but there's quite a fall.
It is quite a fall and it's close to record low levels. So um so it is significant. Um and then when you d drill into the details, uh what is also notable is that uh it is actually quite broad based. It's not just uh one political side of uh of Democrats for instance, which have been more downbeat than Republicans. Um this was a little bit more broad based. It's also uh across different ages. and incomes and so on. So uh it's certainly reflecting that sort of um um negativity going on in in in the consumer sentiment. And and another theme which is probably worth emphasizing too, because it's also emerging in the political discord is that um consumers are not happy with the level of inflation. Um and in particular that when you look at the Michigan survey, inflation expectations remain elevated on the one year level at four point seven, um while the five to ten year, which is a measure that the market likes to focus, uh ease to three point six.
Um so so that that concern and if you like one of the criticisms if you like, of of what uh President Trump policies have done is is that um there's that kind of view that not enough has been done to to bring inflation down um and again uh affecting sentiment too.
What does the sharp drop in China’s October exports reveal about trade dynamics?
Well consumer expectations did fall below fifty, so um yeah, below the magic fifty, fifty point three down to forty nine in this survey. And the question is how long is that uh shutdown gonna go on for?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are global economists warning of a slowdown despite mixed US data?
0:01–1:47
2
How is the US government shutdown influencing consumer sentiment and markets?
1:47–4:00
3
What does the sharp drop in China’s October exports reveal about trade dynamics?
4:00–6:52
4
How are China’s CPI and PPI figures shaping expectations of deflation?
6:52–9:02
5
What can Australia’s labour‑market data tell us about the domestic economy?
9:02–11:05
6
Why are central banks keeping policy neutral and what does it mean for the Aussie dollar?
11:05–13:39
7
How are tariff debates and the Supreme Court ruling likely to affect US‑China trade?
13:39–16:05
8
What are the upcoming Australian data releases and RBA speeches that could move markets?
16:05–16:56