NVIDIA AI chip ban as trade war with China escalates
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How is the US‑China trade war impacting Nvidia’s AI chip exports and equity markets?
Things are getting even uglier between the US and China with an export ban on some rare earth minerals from China, limits to the export of Nvidia's critical AI chip from the US, and threats of secondary tariffs on those countries doing a lot of trade with China, with a sharp decline in global economic forecast from the WTO. And also, what did Jerome Powell have to say about all of this in the last few hours? We'll look at that and what's happening today, including Australian employment. Data and the ECB policy decision. It's Thursday, it's the 17th of April 2025. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, quite a fall in the US dollar today. It's down naught point eight percent on the DXY, now below ninety-nine point five, actually down to ninety-nine point three five.
Oh, one stage territory it's not spent a lot of time in since this month in twenty twenty two. That has helped the Aussie, which is up naught point four percent, now at sixty-three point seven US cents. The euro though, that's up naught point nine percent, whilst the pound is flat. The yen is up another naught point seven percent, the Swiss franc is up one point. But it's the hit to US shares that's getting the most attention today, the Nasdaq in particular, down 3.1%, more or less from the market open, but then pushed a little bit lower, the more we heard from the Fed uh chair. Now down almost 15% since the start of the year, the Nasdaq, not really uh much higher than it was in November 2021. So so much for US exceptionalism.
Uh A two 1.2% fall in the SP as well and 1.7% lower for the Dow, whereas European equities largely on the rise, 0.3% up for the DAX and for the FTSE 100, although a bit of a fall in France has seen the Eurostocks 50 down narrowly at the close. And if rising gold is a sign of an uncertain future, well, it's up three and a quarter percent today, hitting a fresh all-time high. Ten-year treasury yields have fallen a little further. Just two basis points. So down to 4.31%, down three in Germany, and down four basis points for UK 10-year guilt yields.
What are the recent movements in Australian bond yields and what do they signal?
And Aussie 10 years, well, they were down one basis point yesterday to 4.34%. On futures now, down a few basis points from that. And oil pushing back up, completely obliterating yesterday's losses. So WTI is up 2.1%. Brent also up 2.1%, back up over 66% a barrel now. So NABS Gavin. Friend is with me today in London. So the fall in equities in the US, a chunk of that is this fall in Nvidia, because the government has banned exports of its H twenty AI chip to China. Uh or at least they're going to require a license to export it. I think that probably amounts to the same thing. Uh Nvidia shares down almost ten percent today. I mean it's a just another day of tariff news creating havoc on the markets.
Yeah, morning Phil. It it is indeed and obviously you know, we've had a bit of a a relief on the tariff news the last couple of days, but the uh the harsh reality sets back in again. The US is really trying to put the thumb screws on China at the moment, aren't they? Um they're they're they're they're they're doing this. The the Chinese have o have obviously retaliated in terms of they've mentioned about banning Boeing aircraft and parts. But the US is saying is reportedly anyway, uh, according to um the Wall Street Journal and others, pressing its own trading partners to limit their dealings with uh with China by proposing those trading partners impose secondary tariffs on nations with close relations to China to help prevent uh China sending exports via via other countries.
So that would be Europe, that would be the UK, that would be Australia, presumably as well. I mean, a whole chunk of the world gets tied up in that.
Well and that but of course that's that's to the extent that these other countries want to play ball. I don't think Spain wants to play ball, but of course Spain is part of the European Union and European Union has to act as one. I mean we don't know.
How might US secondary‑tariff pressure affect Europe and other trading partners?
We don't know what leverage ch uh you know the US might want to exert onto those other trading nations, like, as you say, the European Union.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How is the US‑China trade war impacting Nvidia’s AI chip exports and equity markets?
0:01–1:57
2
What are the recent movements in Australian bond yields and what do they signal?
1:57–3:49
3
How might US secondary‑tariff pressure affect Europe and other trading partners?
3:49–5:46
4
What did Jerome Powell say at the Economic Club of Chicago and how is it influencing markets?
5:46–7:33
5
How are new US tariffs expected to affect global inflation and economic growth?
7:33–9:17
6
What does the latest US retail‑sales data reveal about consumer‑spending trends?
9:17–11:51
7
What is the ECB likely to decide on rates amid a neutral policy stance?
11:51–13:20
8
How are holiday closures affecting equity and bond market trading this week?
13:20–14:25