Oil down as Trump threatens India and OPEC+ pushes supplies higher
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How is Trump’s ultimatum affecting India’s Russian oil purchases and OPEC+ supply?
Well on Friday it was Job Starter. Today it's oil. More of it coming from OPEC Plus Plus. An ultimatum on India to stop them buying oil from Russia. Is that gonna happen? Will Trump push India's tariffs even higher? Today, Aussie household spending is amongst the data, along with US services ISM and the trade balance. You'd have to assume that has swung in US favor, right? It's Tuesday, it's the fifth of August 2025. The morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, equities are high today. The Dow is up 1.3%, 1.5% for the SP, 2% for the Nasdaq in Europe, 1.5% for the Eurostocks 50, 1.4% for the DAX, and 0.7% for the FTSE 100. The US dollar is down again. It's losing 0.4% on the DXY on Monday, down to 98.7%, but the Euro is only down 0.1%.
The Japanese yen is Up naught point three percent, the Swiss franc down half a per cent, and just a two basis point fall in ten year treasuries today, but down five for ten year bond yields in Germany, down six in France and Spain, down eight in Italy, Aussie ten years, uh we were at four point three one percent yesterday, now in futures down to four point two four percent, and oil lower again, one point eight percent off WTI, one and a half percent lower for Brent, which is down to six. sixty eight sixty a barrel. So here is Nabs. Rodrigo Catrill joining us in Sydney. It's an interesting follow up to Friday, wasn't there? Bond yields uh pretty flat after Friday's excitement, at least in the US. We've got uh equities up, maybe a bit of buying the dip, but clearly no lingering concerns from Friday, were they?
In fact, presumably equity markets like it because uh interest rates are going to come down faster.
Yeah, morning Phil.
What does the flat bond‑yield environment reveal about equity rebounds and Fed credibility after recent political moves?
Um it is interesting, but um um just in s in noting that uh you know you you talk about the rebound in equities, um which um you know maybe it you could argue is was supported by the move low in yields, but the move down in yields that we saw on on Friday, um, it's now um in a sense extended. Very gradually, but it hasn't reversed. So so that that's kind of interesting in in in that sense, particularly in the back end of the curve. So um what is it telling us? Um well hard to tell, but uh in terms of those concerns around the credibility of of the Fed, um it's um it it you're not seeing uh an increase in volatility, but certainly in terms of the debates, if you like. We we have seen an increase in the debate because uh
Over the weekend we had many economists complaining uh and saying that what the president had done in terms of firing the chief of the the label statistics commissioner, um it it wasn't a good call and and the accusations of of saying or suggesting that the data could be reached wasn't wasn't really uh supported by many economists. Um saying that
Yeah. Well Kev Kevin Hassett got a bit of a roasting. Trump's financial advancement got a bit of a roasting on on on Meet the Press, didn't he, over the weekend? And they they quoted William Beach, who was the former commissioner for the BLS, the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Uh his point was the data is finalised by fif uh forty people. The commissioner doesn't get to see it until the Wednesday before the Friday release. They're simply reported to the Commissioner. They're already sort of locked and loaded, so she can't change them. She just gets them to brief the the president's economic team. So there's no way the commissioner knew the data or could have um d had any involvement in trying to sabotage it.
So, you know, as they put it, uh you know, they r Trump really did shoot the messenger, to which Kevin Hassett said, Well the President wants his own people in there. Still no market moves, even after that d road crash interview.
It is, it is interesting in that sense. But uh it is I mean the the the the vibe if you like in terms of uh the president trying to to put his own people um is creating a little bit of concern because many of these institutions are supposed to be independent and when you put your own people wha what does that mean in terms of that independence?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How is Trump’s ultimatum affecting India’s Russian oil purchases and OPEC+ supply?
0:01–1:40
2
What does the flat bond‑yield environment reveal about equity rebounds and Fed credibility after recent political moves?
1:40–4:07
3
Why are lower oil prices and OPEC+ output increases easing yield volatility and influencing bond curves?
4:07–5:59
4
How far is President Trump likely to push secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil?
5:59–8:07
5
What does the recent tightening of Australian bank lending standards mean for the housing market?
8:07–10:46
6
Is the RBA poised to cut rates again as household spending shows modest improvement?
10:46–13:18
7
How are Japan’s political dynamics shaping the Bank of Japan’s response to deflationary pressures?
13:18–15:34
8
What insights might the upcoming US three‑year Treasury auction provide on inflation expectations?
15:34–16:31