Oil falls further, RBA holds
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What did the RBA decide in its latest meeting and why was it expected?
A unanimous decision by the RBA and a more hawkish Fed early tomorrow morning, even though it's the first one for Kevin Walsh. And with the memorandum of understanding yet to be fully understood, of course, uh oil continues to fall to levels we haven't seen since the whole Gulf thing kicked off. It's Wednesday. It's the seventeenth of june twenty twenty-six. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, US shares have retreated a little. The S P is down naught point three percent. The Nasdaq is down naught point six percent, but the Dow is up naught point eight percent, hitting another all-time high. It's like the old economy is winning today. Uh the US dollar has fallen a little further, but so has the Aussie dollar, which is sitting at seventy point seven US cents now.
Bond yields have fallen further, down five basis points for ten year treasuries, down to four point four two percent, down two basis points. Basis points for yields for German and UK ten years. Aussie ten years were up two basis points yesterday to four point eight two per cent. And oil today down a lot more. Four uh five point nine percent off WTI, five point one percent off Brent, which is uh taking it now below seventy nine a barrel. It actually got down to seventy eight forty five in this session, the lowest since early March. And here is Taylor Nugent uh from Nab, so uh there's not much to say really on the US Iran ceasefire, except it's still happening. The deal will be signed, and supposedly sixty days of peace ensues, and oil is down to well, acceptable levels, you could almost say.
Yeah, good good morning, Phil. As as you say, kind of oil continuing to to fall as um as kind of you know optimism that there will be follow-through from that that um announced deal. It's um expected to be signed on on Friday, Brent back below eighty dollars a barrel for the first time in in three months. Um we are seeing kind of you know trickles of of information uh come coming out, but you know, still there's a lot to a lot of detail to be revealed. One thing that's worth calling out. out, I think, is that the Wall Street Journal has reported uh that the deal uh includes uh waivers of sanctions that would allow Iranian oil to um to be sold almost immediately. And so that would include um, you know, waivers of of sanctions on on the necessary services around banking, transportation, insurance, all of those sorts of things needed to facilitate those sales as as well.
So you know there's potential there that, you know, that Iranian Oil supply is, you know, it looks like that's gonna be going to be part of the deal, as well as kind of expectations that there'll be more flow through the the Strait of Hamoose. Yeah.
How are falling oil prices influencing global inflation expectations?
Um on that that front as well, in terms of expectations of kind of how quickly uh supply could resume. Obviously, there's still plenty of un uncertainty around this, but there are some some different comments worth calling out. There's some reporting that um one US official expects a a normalization within 30 days and that there there should be as many as kind of 40 to 50 transits um just on that route that hugs the the Amani coast by by Friday. Um the context there is kind of ordinary pre-conflict flows to the Strait of Hamoons are about 135. So you know still uh meaningfully below, but you know, that 30-day timeline is you know pretty pretty optimistic. Um we'll we'll see how how that flows. And we did see some comments from uh some.
some you know some shipping officials as as well and and you know heads of um CEOs of of shipping companies just saying that you know there is still some some caution there. Um one in particular with calling out is just kind of you know given the the experience of the last couple of months, um I think it's reasonable uh to assume it may take uh at least a couple of weeks, if not a month, and they would be you know fairly cautious um in in kind of you know following through and and some sailing ships through until there is more clarity. Um and, you know, also worth noting, you know, there's a timeline there that extends in in terms of, you know, weeks, maybe maybe a month, but there are still some other barriers.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What did the RBA decide in its latest meeting and why was it expected?
0:01–2:25
2
How are falling oil prices influencing global inflation expectations?
2:25–6:46
3
What is the status of the Iran‑U.S. ceasefire deal and its impact on oil markets?
6:46–11:27
4
Why did the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate to 1% and what does it mean for the yen?
11:27–14:32
5
What are the latest Chinese economic data points and what do they suggest about growth?
14:32–16:51
6
How are U.S. retail sales and housing starts trending and why does it matter?
16:51–18:44