Oil trapped by Strait’s jacket
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Why is Iran warning that oil could hit $200 per barrel?
Iran says oil will reach $200 as they continue to attack vessels in the strait, even if the US has stopped them laying mines. But who would be willing to chance it? Nobody right now. It seems the straits are devoid of shipping. So even though the IEA has released 400 million barrels of uh oil from reserves, the price is still rising. And bond yields rising too, and the Aussie dollar climbing to a new multi-year high as well. It's Thursday. It's the twelfth of March twenty twenty-six. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, oil is pushing higher again, still below a hundred, but close to ninety two now for Brent, rising over four percent this morning. WTI is up a similar amount, approaching eighty seven a barrel.
Big moves in bond yields today, up ten basis points in Germany, up thirteen in the UK and France, and up six for ten year treasuries. The US dollar has climbed northern four percent to ninety nine point two on the DXY, but the Aussie is also up by half a percent, over seventy one and a half. It actually hit a four-year high overnight and big falls for the Euro, which is down a third of one percent, and the yen down half a percent. The Nasdaq is holding its own, the S P down less than 0.2%. But European stocks have taken a big hit. The DAX is down one point four percent, the Eurostocks fifty down three quarters of one percent as well. And here's Nab's Udrigo Catrill in Sydney this morning. So this rise in oil prices obviously nowhere near as high as they have been, but still on the rise, uh despite the IEA incre uh agreeing to release this four hundred million dollars, uh um four hundred million barrels, I should say, from its members, which is a
How are the IEA’s 400 million‑barrel release and rising Brent prices connected?
one third of total reserves, which you would have thought would, you know, perhaps bring prices down, but no, it's continued to rise.
Morning Phil. Yeah, if anything, that that is the takeaway. You know, you compare prices uh although they've been quite volatile, but uh Brent is up effectively five percent. Um and you know, and we've had this news that the the release of of oil supply is actually gonna be larger than what had been early reported earlier. So from the Wall Street Journal had an article suggesting one hundred and eighty two uh million barrels on Now we we're talking in four hundred. Uh and yet prices still gone up. So I think that that's the sort of the read that we should take on in terms of what's going on here. Uh the market remains very concerned uh in terms of what's going on in the Strait of Hamoose and and uh you know basically information that we're getting over the last twenty four hours uh is not uh good reading.
Uh it it sort of reemphasizes the the view that we should be worried about this um and that the risks that all process um you know are going up or heading higher from here.
Rather than coming down. Well, I have been uh looking at uh shipfinder.co, but there's you know a whole load of uh ship tracking apps where you can see actually what's going on. There's nothing uh in the Straits now. Uh in in previous days there was sort of sort of vessels hanging around there, but nothing anywhere near now. Uh so uh you know we've got Iran saying uh oil could reach uh two hundred dollars a barrel uh According to Reuters this morning. And, you know, this news about um that you know, they have been trying to lay mines. Iran has been trying to do that.
What do ship‑tracking data show about traffic in the Strait of Hormuz?
The US says they've destroyed sixteen Iranian mine laying vessels. I mean, were they successful in laying any before they destroyed the vessels? That's the question. So are the mines out there? And then three commercial ships have been struck uh in the area as well by Iran. And so they're now targeting merchant cargo ships, not just oil tankers. And then a a a drone hit Dubai airport yesterday. So there's no way this is uh this is uh easing at all.
Well, I would you know, I s I suppose the the market is quite divided in terms of how to to read all this news. Um our sense is that uh at the moment the market is probably underestimating the risk that, you know, oil prices remain elevated for longer and that obviously is is not good for inflation and and the global growth outlook.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is Iran warning that oil could hit $200 per barrel?
0:01–1:36
2
How are the IEA’s 400 million‑barrel release and rising Brent prices connected?
1:36–3:11
3
What do ship‑tracking data show about traffic in the Strait of Hormuz?
3:11–5:02
4
Are Iranian‑laid naval mines actually present in the strait?
5:02–6:16
5
How could prolonged high oil prices affect global inflation and growth?
6:16–8:44
6
What impact will the energy shock have on the RBA’s rate‑hike outlook?
8:44–10:40
7
Why are US Treasury yields rising and what does the latest auction signal?
10:40–12:16
8
What are central banks saying about inflation risks from the Middle‑East conflict?
12:16–12:29