Out of Office
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Why was trading thin on Monday and what does the holiday calendar mean for markets?
Well, a quietish day with holidays in Asia and the United States, but the US will be back later. Meanwhile, Japan's GDP, weaker than expected. We'll look at whether that'll have any influence on the Bank of Japan. European industrial growth went backwards, so maybe we should look more forwards. And just how bullish our investors are now. Too bullish, perhaps? Uh we'll have a quick look at the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey. It's Tuesday, it's the 17th of February, 2026. Six it's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well the US dollar is up 0.2% to 97.1% on the DXY index. The Aussie is holding its own just under seventy point eight US cents. But the yen has fallen half a percent today. The share market closed in the US, of course, but a mixed story in Europe, half a percent off the DAX, but a quarter percent rise for the FTSE one hundred and one percent up for Spanish shares.
The bond market, of course, closed in the US, and not much happening elsewhere. Aussie ten years. were down four basis points yesterday to four point seven one percent uh on futures now it's uh moved a couple of basis points back up from that and oil up about one percent around sixty eight forty now for Brent spot gold is down one percent comic silver down one point nine percent so obviously a session a fairly light trade with holidays in the US and Asia here's nabs Sally old uh not a lot to go on data wise is though over the last twenty four hours but I mean Japan Hans GDP for Q four, same as the UK, not point one percent for the quarter, which was worse than expected. You know, and that's before they've really seen any further rate rises, which seems like they may be maybe hold held off a bit, do you reckon?
Yeah, good morning, Phil. Well, yeah, it wasn't a a a sort of super strong GDP outcome, but when we do look at the details, what we find is uh, you know, what we would call here in Australia private final demand or what others might call domestic final sales was actually up um almost a percent in the quarter in annualized terms. Um so that gives you some sense that uh, you know, there is something going on in in Japan. And they have had a fair bit of volatility through their GDP numbers over the course of 2025, largely driven uh by I think quite an exaggerated inventory cycle. So if we go all the way back to uh early 2025, you know, remember we were getting anxious about uh what the Trump administration was going to do around tariffs, and so we did see uh in many countries, including Japan, a really big inventory build in the first quarter.
Porta which added to GDP and then that sort of subsequently detracted from GDP over the course of the year. Um, but any even with that uh in mind, yes, it was a slightly sort of soft number, but I'm not sure that that is going to worry the Bank of Japan. Too much, uh, in terms of their thinking about, you know, what will be a very gradual normalization of of interest rates uh over there. But yeah, absolutely. You know, it was a little bit softer than the market uh was hoping for and perhaps, you know, that might have been the driver of s the weakness in the yen that you mentioned uh at the top.
How did Japan’s weaker‑than‑expected Q4 GDP impact expectations for the Bank of Japan?
And Eurozone industrial production for December we got that a negative one point four percent. So going backwards, I think it was expected it was uh gonna be more or less around that, but we've uh they've also revised down the growth for November from naught point seven percent to naught point three percent. In short, they are going the wrong way, but it is swings and roundabouts, isn't it, with these numbers? But there does seem to have been a lot fewer highs lately.
Yeah, that's right. So, you know, at face value, not a great number for uh December of last year for European industrial production. But actually if we look at the quarter as a whole, it wasn't too bad. It was up uh just a touch under two percent annualized for the quarter. And again, like not dissimilar to the Japanese GDP story, there's been a lot of volatility in that series over the course of twenty twenty five, driven uh I think in large part
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why was trading thin on Monday and what does the holiday calendar mean for markets?
0:01–3:01
2
How did Japan’s weaker‑than‑expected Q4 GDP impact expectations for the Bank of Japan?
3:01–5:56
3
What do the latest Eurozone industrial production numbers reveal about Europe’s economic outlook?
5:56–9:25
4
Why are Australian investors showing strong bullishness despite limited downside protection?
9:25–10:18
5
What insights does the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey give about global growth expectations and equity risk?
10:18–12:57
6
How is the US dollar’s multi‑year downtrend affecting the Australian dollar and commodity prices?
12:57–13:15
7
What geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are keeping a floor under oil prices?
13:15–13:21
8
When and where will NAB’s Sally Auld appear next, and what topics will be covered at the Singapore Forum?
13:21–13:22