Payrolls, Paris and OPEC+
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What are the expectations for the U.S. non‑farm payrolls and how could they affect Fed rate cuts?
Non-farm payrolls tonight for the United States. Is this the only thing that can change the outlook for the Fed rate cut this month? In Paris, Macron is speaking about now, but the word is he won't be naming his new PM just yet. Who wants that job? Uh European data looks a little grim as well yesterday, and oil it moved down a little as OPEC Plus confirmed production increases are being pushed back. So it's payrolls, Paris and OPEC. Plus today. We are nothing if not alliterative on the morning call. It's Friday, it's the sixth of december twenty twenty four. Good morning. Well the dollar's down again today, down naught point four percent for the US dollar on the DXY to a hundred and five point nine, a little down on that peak, which was around one hundred and seven point five, uh, not that long ago, but uh it's still very high.
The Aussie is up naught point one percent to just under sixty four point four US cents. The euro is up half a percent, the pound up a third of one percent. Ten year treasuries, well they are where they were yesterday, but German ten year yields are up five basis points. Down one in France, up three in the UK. And Aussie ten years yesterday finished at four point two three percent, a couple of basis points higher than that now. And oil down a little, down naught point three percent for WTI, about the same for Brent, which is not far above seventy two a barrel now. And Bitcoin pushes over a hundred thousand. Perhaps it is because of Trump's SEC nominee, Paul Atkins, uh who is uh definitely a uh a kryptonite, I think.
We should be calling them. Uh we talked about this yesterday. Regulation. Who needs that? Uh and obviously Bitcoin uh rejoicing on that news. Uh so it's Friday, non farm payrolls today for the United States. Nabs Rodrigo Cotrill is with me today. We were recording yesterday whilst Jerome Powell was talking. He talked a bit about uh the independence of the the Fed under Trump. But in terms of monetary policy, well um Um what was your take out?
How is Jerome Powell’s recent commentary influencing the Fed’s pause on policy?
I mean he he did seem to be suggesting that the economy was doing a little better than they'd anticipated, which would suggest less reason to move quickly, wouldn't it?
Yeah, morning Phil. Um well uh as to your point he I think he said that the economy is doing remark it is in remarkably good shape. Um and then I I suppose the the big headline from from what he said is is is that he we can afford to be a little bit more cautious as we try to find neutral. So two two sort of comments on that. One uh the cautiousness obviously is like that emphasis of going slower and terms of uh future rate cuts. Uh but also this idea that no one knows where neutral is. Uh and therefore as you don't know you you kind of gotta feel your way and slowly to to till you get there. And and only once you're there you sort of or after you've you've been there you realise that you're there. And only once yeah.
So um it does kind of uh play to the view that particularly given the economic outlook um and as you mentioned, you know, we all trying to wait and see what priorities will President Trump um um you know focus on in terms of is he gonna go for tax cuts first and deregulation um And then, you know, trade tariffs or trade war becomes sort of secondary or later in the year, then it it will sort of propel the economy and and the equity market to continue to perform. So
So all very good reasons not to cut in December. Exactly.
But w
has market expectation changed at all?
Well, uh it's not necessarily to cut in December. I think that uh you know, given the commentary that we're getting from uh many Fed speakers, uh, you know, Walla this week, um it you know, I think that the the December um decision is still up for grabs. We we've gotta wait for obviously what happens to non farm payrolls and also for the CPI print. Um but at the moment there's a general sense that given where we are today, um they're they're still willing to cut in in December but then pause. Um Yeah. Um and then the idea of the case. So no change in our cards one more card still tells you that you're not you know nowhere near neutral yet.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What are the expectations for the U.S. non‑farm payrolls and how could they affect Fed rate cuts?
0:01–1:52
2
How is Jerome Powell’s recent commentary influencing the Fed’s pause on policy?
1:52–4:18
3
Why is the political deadlock in France impacting the Eurozone’s economic outlook?
4:18–6:42
4
What does OPEC+ plan to do with oil production and how might that pressure global markets?
6:42–9:27
5
How are European labour‑market data and wage trends shaping ECB and Fed decisions?
9:27–11:30
6
What are the implications of the Beige Book and upcoming CPI data for U.S. monetary policy?
11:30–14:43
7
How could Japan’s wage negotiations and BOJ stance affect future rate hikes?
14:43–16:10