Powell keeps quiet, Trump speaks out
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Why did Jerome Powell’s quiet speech stall U.S. equity markets?
Not a lot of movement in the markets today and what there has been mostly comes from what's not being said. Jerome Powell kept stumb when giving a long-awaited speech on Rhode Island, and that seems to have stopped equity markets in their tracks. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has a lot to say about how other countries are being ruined by immigration and their adherence to the climate hoax. He wasn't holding back. An Aussie CPI today. So what specifically should we be looking out for in that? But otherwise it's a quiet day for data. It's Wednesday. It's the twenty-fourth of September twenty twenty-five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, a small move down in the US dollar today on the DXY and small moves in all currencies.
Really, the biggest of the majors is just a 0.2% drop in the Canadian dollar. So nothing exceptional about that. The exceptionalism that has been the US stock market, well, that's dipped a little today. Mind you, we are coming off yesterday's record highs. So the Nasdaq closed down one percent, not point six percent lower for the SP, and 0.2% down for the Dow. Meanwhile, shares Are up in Europe, 0.6% for the Eurostocks 50 and 0.4% up for the DAX and 10-year Treasury yields. Uh four basis points lower this morning at 4.11%. Yields haven't really moved in Europe except in the UK, where 10-year gilts are down, three basis points, but no moves in continental Europe really. And oil has bounced back.
What did Powell say about inflation and employment that changed market expectations?
WTI is up 1.9%, Brent is up 1.7% to 6770 a barrel. Gold Up another 1% of $3,810. Yes, it is another record high for gold. Just saying that every day now. And welcome back. Sally Old, Nab's chief economist in Sydney. Well, normally in Sydney, she's actually on the road in Narrabri uh right now. Uh so shares seem to have uh pulled back in the US because Jerome Powell gave this speech on Rhode Island. I think it was a bit of a long-awaited speech, wasn't it? Because it's really his first talk. Since the Fed meeting, uh, and I guess many expected he would reinforce the idea of further cuts at the next couple of meetings. But he didn't say that. He didn't give anything away, did he?
Yeah, good morning, Phil, from the beautiful north western New South Wales district. Um, that's right. So he spoke, he basically said, uh, you know, the near term risks are actually to higher inflation and to a weaker labour market. And so obviously that's a challenging uh position for for any central bank, particularly one with a dual mandate. And so he basically said You know, regardless of what we do, there's no risk free path. You know, there's there's the risk that they cut and inflation goes higher than they think. Uh there's a risk that they don't cut and the labor market continues to weaken and so
How did U.S. bond yields and tech stocks react after the Fed chair’s remarks?
He basically said, you know, when you're in a situation where the goals that you have as a central bank are intention, then you've got to sort of balance both sides of the mandate. And that was maybe just a little bit more even-handed, I guess, than certainly market pricing reflects. And he did also say that policy was still modestly restrictive, even after the 25 basis point rate cut, but I think maybe the um pricked people's ears was really the comment that policy is not on a preset path and I guess that's uh You know, just a little shot across the bow for a market that seems pretty convinced that they're gonna cut again in October, uh, and then again in December, uh, and possibly more in uh the first half of twenty twenty six.
So didn't seem to worry the market too much. I mean we've still got uh you know almost twenty three basis points of easing priced in for uh October, but I guess maybe just a a a touch more even handed than than perhaps the market expected.
Yeah. He did send bone yields slower uh uh after he spoke though, didn't he? Uh and we had a a good response to uh to an auction for two year notes as well. So them the the yield for those now down to three point five six percent.
Yeah, that's right. So clearly still a lot of decent demand for front end paper uh in in the US in a uh but
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did Jerome Powell’s quiet speech stall U.S. equity markets?
0:01–1:21
2
What did Powell say about inflation and employment that changed market expectations?
1:21–2:37
3
How did U.S. bond yields and tech stocks react after the Fed chair’s remarks?
2:37–4:43
4
What were Donald Trump’s main points at the UN on immigration and the ‘climate hoax’?
4:43–6:33
5
How are U.S. and European PMI readings shaping the global growth outlook?
6:33–8:50
6
Why is Boeing’s huge Dreamliner order boosting its stock despite a weak market?
8:50–10:31
7
What should listeners watch for in today’s Australian CPI release?
10:31–12:03
8
How is Trump’s climate‑skeptic stance influencing ESG investment sentiment?
12:03–13:02