RBA on hold, Trump ready to go
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Why did the RBA keep interest rates on hold and what does it mean for inflation risk?
The RBA kept great on hold, and Michelle Bullock said the risk on inflation is on either side, and that's before or maybe because of the potential tariffs from the United States. We're a little over 24 hours away from that. So what do we know about what we can expect? Nobody knows for sure, but there is a bit of idle speculation out there that we can bring to you. It's Wednesday, it's the 2nd of April. It's Liberation Day, although they're not quite yet in the United States. It's the morning call from Good morning. Well, US stocks are edging up a little today. The NASDAQ finished up naught point nine percent, a naught point four percent rise for the S P five hundred at the close, but the Dow, well, trying to claw its way into the green but failing in that last hour and not quite managing it.
In Europe, a one point four percent rise in the Euros stocks fifty, the DAX is up one point seven percent, up one point one percent for the CAC car on and not point six percent for the FTSE one hundred. There's not been much movement in the US direction. The dollar on the DXY has been up and down and up and down, but it's pretty much where it was this time yesterday. Against that, we've seen a half percent rise in the Aussie dollar up to sixty two point seven five US cents. The Japanese yen is up a quarter percent, the pound is relatively flat, and there's a quarter percent fall in the euro. Bond yields falling down four basis points for ten year US Treasuries to four point one seven percent, down five basis points for ten year German bundles, uh same in France as well.
Well, Aussie ten years. Well, they were up three basis points yesterday to four point four one percent, down four basis points from that now on futures overnight. And oil is down today, a quarter percent fall in Brent and WTI. Brent now below seventy-five a barrel. Gold is also down a little today. So it's Nabs Taylor Nugent who joins me today from Melbourne. Uh look, we are still more than twenty-four hours away from Donald Trump's address. On Liberation Day from the Rose Garden at the White House. It probably won't have happened in time for tomorrow morning's podcast. So we have another day of uncertainty ahead of us.
How are US equity markets reacting to the looming Trump tariff announcement?
Which is why I guess it's difficult to draw a clear picture about how markets are behaving today, because there's a bit of everything. And it's a bit of everything, but a lot of uncertainty.
Phil, so a bit of US data that I'll I'm sure we'll talk about, the ISM manufacturing, especially kind of noticeably weak. You had um equity prices in the US opening quite quite uh quite a you know meaningfully in the red. They swung back to positive, those gains have been paired back, but still kind of tracking um modestly higher or or around flat at the moment. Um look, there's uh some some news on on tariffs that we should. should we should mention up up front, but we are kind of waiting. Reports seem to suggest four PM Eastern time is gonna be the announcement. So we're looking at something like seven AM um Sydney time to tomorrow morning if that if that proves to be correct. And we heard from the the White House press Secretary Levitt that the the tariffs could take effect immediately.
So that's you know getting getting some attention but there's still
Also, I mean one of the one of the things that's being discussed, according to the Wall Street Journal, uh is a twenty percent global tariff on all imports, on everything for every country, uh with a bit of negotiation. So uh supposedly Donald Trump has settled on a plan now, he's not going to reveal it obviously until tomorrow. But the plan is to raise revenue and negotiate with other countries. But a twenty percent starting point is a global tariff would be interesting. And uh is that real or not? Well it does sort of tally with Peter Navarro, who said that the tariffs could raise six hundred billion a year. Now, if it was twenty percent on all imports, that would be about what, seven hundred or seven hundred and fifty, so maybe one hundred and fifty billion in riggle room for negotiations.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did the RBA keep interest rates on hold and what does it mean for inflation risk?
0:01–1:56
2
How are US equity markets reacting to the looming Trump tariff announcement?
1:56–4:11
3
What is the latest speculation on a possible 20% global tariff from the White House?
4:11–5:59
4
How did the weaker‑than‑expected ISM manufacturing and JOLTS data impact market sentiment?
5:59–8:02
5
What did the RBA’s post‑meeting statement reveal about future rate cuts?
8:02–10:04
6
Why does NAB expect a May rate cut and what are the inflation forecasts for 2026?
10:04–12:13
7
How is Eurozone inflation trending and could it change the ECB’s policy outlook?
12:13–14:14
8
What new Asian economic alliances are forming in response to Trump’s ‘America First’ policy?
14:14–15:18