RBA suggests a longer road to lower inflation
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What did the RBA’s 3.85% rate hike mean for the Australian dollar and bond markets?
The RBA lifted rates yesterday, no big surprise. Well, maybe a surprise summit because the Aussie dollar is up a fair bit, and not everyone is convinced that there's another one coming in May, although most are. So what can we take out from the statement of monetary policy and Michelle Bullock's press conference yesterday? Otherwise, a day that was fairly light on data, and sometime in the next few hours, Donald Trump could well be signing the legislation that will lift the partial government shutdown. But when will we see non-function? Farm payrolls. It's Wednesday. It's the fourth of February, twenty twenty-six. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar rose a little before falling back down.
It's lost a quarter percent now on the DXY, whereas the Aussie is up one percent almost at seventy point two US cents. In fact, it got up to seventy point five at one point. Shares are under pressure, one point nine percent off the DXY, not point eight percent off the S P. Down in Europe too, but not to the same extent. Aussie ten year yields rose four basis points yesterday to four point eight three percent, five or six basis points higher than that now in futures. And oil is climbing 1.9% for WTI, 1.7% for Brent, which is at 6740 a barrel. Spot of gold up 5.6%, silver up more than eleven percent, climbing back a little from those massive falls after uh Donald Trump's Fred Fed nomination. Uh today gold is up and the dollar slides.
But the RBA was the big news yesterday, not unexpected, a unanimous decision. uh to lift rates to 3.85%. Uh here's uh NAB Sky Masters in Sydney.
How did the RBA’s statement wording and Michelle Bullock’s press conference signal future policy?
But it wasn't that decision, was it really, that influenced anything. It was that it was some of the wording in the statement of monetary policy that was issued alongside that announcement.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. And and as you've said, in in a session which um has been pretty or an overnight session which has been pretty light on the on the macro front front, it clearly is um the decision by the RBA that that's been um been been the focus. And yeah, look as you said, the the twenty five base point rate hike was sort of l widely expected by the market. I think, you know, the market went into a pricing around a seven twenty percent chance um majority of the economists thought that they would hike at that meeting. But but the focus was really on um the wording or guidance around any any further rate hikes to come. Um the market sort of going into the meeting was was pricing in the risks risks of another RBA rate hike and as you know
Nab went into that meeting saying that we thought they'd hike um at the February meeting and then again again in May. So you saw a little bit of volatility. um around the release of the press statement and then um And then the the the press conference. But essentially, you know, the the the view is is that that that this this is not a one and done. Um and the RBA board is sort of very unpleased to see that inflation uh continues to to remain well above um the the midpoint of the RBA's target target band and um and so So while you know, Michelle Bullock um clearly w did not want to provide any any forward guidance. Um I think it was clear from from her comments around the board being very, very concerned that inflation remains high and that within the RBA's um forecasts they don't have Trim Mean actually getting back to within their their midpoint of their target ban until the middle of two thousand twenty eight.
So um
as opposed to uh you know, originally they were saying December last year.
Yes, yes. I mean, you know, they have
just two and a half years late.
Yeah.
Why has the RBA pushed its inflation‑target return date to mid‑2028?
They I mean they have consistently been pushing pushing it out. Um i i uh the the timing of when they see inflation reaching their um the midpoint of their target. And so, you know, with with inflation remaining high, um, the labour market unemployment rate still sort of seen relatively tight and, you know, the the continued um lack of capacity, which which we've talked about before, sort of all all pointed to to the need, you know, the need for them to to shift policy and deliver the rate hike that they they did they did yesterday.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What did the RBA’s 3.85% rate hike mean for the Australian dollar and bond markets?
0:01–1:31
2
How did the RBA’s statement wording and Michelle Bullock’s press conference signal future policy?
1:31–3:43
3
Why has the RBA pushed its inflation‑target return date to mid‑2028?
3:43–5:44
4
What are the RBA’s expectations for unemployment rates through 2028?
5:44–8:10
5
How are Australian building approvals and housing‑market volatility affecting the outlook?
8:10–10:00
6
What’s driving the recent surge in oil prices amid US‑Iran tensions?
10:00–11:40
7
What does China’s services PMI reveal about the health of the Asian economy?
11:40–12:57
8
How will Europe’s January CPI data influence global inflation expectations?
12:57–13:44