RBA’s new forecasts, no jobs data from the US
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Why is the RBA expected to raise rates today?
So now just about everybody is expecting a ray rise from the RBA today. We've been talking about it for a while, of course, but it'll be their forecast revisions that is going to be interesting today. And markets will have to make do without jobs data from the United States. Non-farm payroll seems unlikely this week, uh, because of the partial government shutdown and certainly no jolt's numbers today. Otherwise, everything's on a bit of a holding pan. It is Tuesday, it's the third of February, 2026. It's the morning call. Good morning. Well, the US dollar is up further today, climbing naught point six percent. The Aussie is only down a little low, just below sixty nine point six US cents. The yen is down half a percent as well.
Also uh quite a fall in the Swiss franc. We've got a naught point eight percent rise in the Nasdaq. The S P is up naught point seven percent. It's getting very close to an all time high actually. Ten year treasury yields are up three basis points, up two across much of Europe. Aussie ten years are up to four point eight five percent and we've had big falls in oil Brent down four point seven percent five point one percent off WTI spot gold is down four point seven percent but been on a bit of a journey over the last twenty four hours uh silver Up ever so slightly. So here's Nabs Rodrigo Catrill in Sydney. So yes, that journey for gold yesterday, also the stronger US dollar, uh and a much weaker, as I say, Swiss franc.
How are the RBA’s new forecast revisions expected to impact Australian markets?
I mean the market seems to be reacting well, I'm presuming a lot of this is to do with Kevin Walsh for the for the Fed chair, who uh could be more hawkish than other contenders and certainly probably more supportive of an independent Fed than some of the other choices. Uh
Morningfield. Yes. Uh I I think that that's the the last part of your comment is is is relative to the other choices, uh Walsh uh seemed to be um a more credible option. Um so so that's been important. Um to the extent that he's more hawkish uh or that he is hawkish, um I'm I'm not so sure that you know, um my sense is that you know to to get the gig you you have to kiss the ring. So that means that you you have to deliver or at least push and try very hard for further easing. So that would be dovish, but relative to to what other um alternatives, as you mentioned, uh he's definitely a more credible one. And and when it comes to this idea of the reform of the Fed or changes in the Fed, um um I think it also plays to the view that it will be a more gradual gradual approach approach.
And and also again again what One that is looking at some valid criticisms of the Fed as opposed to a drastic change um uh of of the Fed. So so that's giving markets a little bit of ease. But in terms of the price action, particularly in terms of gold and silver, um I think that is also quite r reflective of of the level of riverage that um has been put into those markets uh particularly in recent months. So so that correction uh that really started uh on Friday, uh continued during our um um APAC session yesterday uh with gold. I was just looking at the chart, it's it it really fell you know from the highs at the start of the day to to the low it was an 18% decline. Um but then recovered overnight and and you know again from from the lows.
Um It it just recovered around ten percent of that.
What does the stronger US dollar and weaker Swiss franc mean for Aussie investors?
So um so it's been it's it's still a bit of a a wild move. Um and uh it did play it into sort of that risk aversion that we saw. Uh or rather uh I wouldn't say risk aversion, but there there was i it played into currencies as well, where we saw the um uh the euro and the OC in particular losing ground. And then of course as you mentioned, we've also had uh domestic
Yeah, well
we'll talk about it in a second. Just very quickly, just uh cuts in the US. I mean Raphael Bostik from the Atlanta Fed of course uh uh leaves at the retires at the end of this month, so perhaps he can say what he wants. I mean he's there saying uh just in the last hour or so that um yeah, he thinks the strong economic performance for the US for the first half of this year, the economy is looking resilient uh even before the tax bill happens.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is the RBA expected to raise rates today?
0:01–1:17
2
How are the RBA’s new forecast revisions expected to impact Australian markets?
1:17–3:10
3
What does the stronger US dollar and weaker Swiss franc mean for Aussie investors?
3:10–5:20
4
How are Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination prospects influencing market sentiment?
5:20–6:47
5
What does the latest US ISM report reveal about orders, production and employment trends?
6:47–8:48
6
Why are oil and gold prices falling and what role do geopolitical shifts play?
8:48–10:15
7
How will the RBA’s 25‑bp rate hike and forecast adjustments affect inflation outlook and future easing?
10:15–12:10
8
What are the implications of upcoming Australian building approvals and US earnings data?
12:10–13:09