Schools Out. And so is the US government.
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Why are schools out in Australia, China, and the US government shutting down today?
Not only is it school holidays for a lot of Australia right now, schools are also out in China, along with just about everyone else, for a week-long national holiday. And the US government is on holiday as well. Well, they're about to shut down for well, who knows how long. All in all, not a lot of work being done. But at least we know jobs are still there in the United States. But what can we tell from the latest data overnight? And the RBA will take a look at what was said yesterday as well. It's Wednesday, it's the first of October. October twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, ahead of that confirmation of that lockdown, there's obviously still time for a last minute reprieve, but stocks were binding their time in the US, but there was a bit of a last minute rally towards the close.
So the SP finished up 0.4%, 0.3% for the Nasdaq. European shares are also on the rise, 0.6% added to the DAX. The US dollar is down just 0.1%. But the Aussie and the Yen both making the biggest moves up half a percent. For the yen, 0.6% for the Aussie, which is up to 66.2 US cents. No real movements in bonds for the US or for Europe. Aussie 10 years were down four basis points yesterday to 4.29%, but up around 4.37% this morning for 10 years. And oil down further today. 1.5% of WTI Brent down 1.3% to 67% a barrel. And gold, guess what?
How are US stock markets reacting to the looming shutdown and what’s the latest on the Nasdaq and S&P?
It's up null point four percent. Got over three thousand eight hundred and seventy, which is, yes, another new record high. Uh we're gonna be talking about gold a little in a little over a week on the uh the weekend edition, but more immediately, here's Nab's Taylor Nugent in Melbourne. So uh the RBA, let's start there. Obviously the wording in the statement yesterday, did that reinforce Nab's assertion that they're they're not getting anywhere till Maybe
Yeah, good morning, Phil. Um as as you say, no real surprises in in the RBA. Uh yesterday on hold a unanimous an unanimous decision to be on hold. You know, that was broadly expected even before uh some of that um some of the the detail of the CPI that we talked about last week. You know, the context that's
a rare th the rare thing with central banks these days to get a unanimous decision actually.
Uh yeah, well I mean the it's this is fairly fairly new for for the RBA unanimous cut in in August, a unanimous hold in um in September. So we'll we'll see whether a bit more division re emerges as as we move forward. But yeah, certainly the context for the decision yesterday was um you know, even putting the inflation data last week to the side, labor market conditions have been broadly stable, domestic activity was was picking up at at least as strongly as expected, and so The RBA, if they were easing, they were only easing um to try and keep uh the labour market near full employment and inflation where they wanted to see it, and that was only ever going to be gradual. You add on to that uh all of the the some of the warning signs that we talked about uh in terms of the the inflation data that we got last week and that only added to the case more.
And I think when you look at the the detail of the statement, some of Bullock's commentary through the press conference, um, you know nothing in there to um to you know suggest uh that they you know to to shift our thinking around the path forward from here essentially. They noted in the postmeeting statement that recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected at the time of the August statement. So, you know, for us that's probably a little bit of a an understatement. But um, you know, definitely uh they have noted notice Some of the same things that we noticed in the uh in the monthly indicator last week and Bullock in that press conference as well did kind of reinforce that message that, you know, their dismissal of the the monthly CPI indicator was more about uh how to interpret those those kind of headline aggregates rather than a dismissal that there is actually information content in in some of the detailed data.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are schools out in Australia, China, and the US government shutting down today?
0:01–1:20
2
How are US stock markets reacting to the looming shutdown and what’s the latest on the Nasdaq and S&P?
1:20–3:43
3
Did the RBA’s latest statement confirm that rate cuts won’t happen until May?
3:43–5:52
4
What does the RBA’s post‑meeting commentary suggest about future monetary policy?
5:52–8:10
5
How is the China‑Australia iron‑ore pricing dispute affecting global commodity prices?
8:10–10:16
6
What could a US government shutdown mean for payroll data, CPI releases, and the Fed’s meeting?
10:16–12:14
7
What do the latest JOLTS, consumer confidence, and quit‑rate numbers tell us about the US labour market?
12:14–14:17
8
Which economic releases (Eurozone CPI, ADP, ISM, Tankan) should investors watch today?
14:17–15:53