Shutdown showdown ready to end? RBA’s easing over?
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Is the US government shutdown likely to end this week?
Is the shutdown ready to end in the United States? It certainly sounds like it, although the Democrats won't have what they wanted, but needs must, I suppose. But it might actually just be a can kicking exercise rather than a full solution. We've got used to that, haven't we? Uh but it's helped equities today and the Aussie dollar doing well as well. But rising bond yields and some hawkish comments from the RBA's Andrew Heiser might have a bit to do with that. It's Tuesday, it's the eleventh of November twenty five is the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, not a lot of movement in the US dollar uh uh or in currencies generally, except for the Aussie dollar, which rose naught point six percent to sixty-five point three US cent.
So a bit of an outlier. Uh the Kiwi dollar is up two, but only a quarter of a percent. So that widening divide sees a twelve year low now for the Kiwi against the Aussie dollar. And maybe bonds uh are part of the reason for the strength of the Aussie dollar. So ten year treasury yields are only up two basis points today. In Europe they're falling, but in Oz yesterday up five basis points, up five basis points to four point three nine percent, which is where they are this morning. The Nasdaq has completely bounced back today. It's at one point eight percent. Uh the S P is at one percent as well. That enthusiasm has extended to Europe where the DAC's closed up one point seven percent.
What do the latest Polymarket odds tell us about the shutdown timeline?
Even the FTSE one hundred has managed a one point one percent lift uh overnight as well. So uh if that's Sales risk on. That doesn't explain why gold is up two point four percent and now firmly back over four thousand dollars an ounce, and silver, incidentally, is up four percent this morning. So what is going on? Here's Nab's Ray Atral confused, rising equities and gold and a strong Aussie dollar. Well, there's a couple of stories which can conveniently join the dots on all of that, aren't there? The w one is Andrew Houser yesterday from the RBA and the other one is that well, the hope that the shutdown might be just round the corner for the United States.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. It's certainly I think it is that sort of optimism that uh a government shutdown is uh or the end to the shutdown looks to be imminent effectively, and it looks as though, you know, enough Democrat senators have uh effectively caved on the demand that um the um expiring um health care credits um that were due to expire in January, uh that they wanted a an extension of, um they've sort of given up hope. hopes that that's going to be achieved and enough of them seem to be throwing their all in with um with Republican senators such that uh there seems to be a reasonable chance that we will uh we will now see an end to the to the shutdown and and that really has been driving markets since sort of fairly early um yesterday morning our time, but we've seen a strong extension of uh of those gains.
So it's definitely risk off and uh gold going up with equities, well that would That was the correlation that would really been uh very, very apparent, hadn't it, up until the beginning of November when the gold price uh uh uh the gold price corrected downwards. Yeah. But um yeah, so that and obviously locally say Ozzy the strong outperformer and um the speech that we had yesterday from the RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser was uh very much responsible for that.
So let's just keep keep on the shutdown just for a second, because it's not a done deal yet, is it? And then there's also the chance that it will actually just be a temporary deal as well. So the CAN might be kicked down the road again. Uh so we might be back here in in January. It's not necessarily a p a permanent deal. But if we look at poly market, just to give an idea of how that shifted the betting odds. So yesterday uh we were saying fifty six percent reckoned that the sh the shutdown wasn't going to be resolved until after November the sixteenth. Well now eighty nine percent say it will be resolved before november sixteenth. So that's how high the expectation is that that they are just days away from getting it all fixed up.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Is the US government shutdown likely to end this week?
0:01–1:14
2
What do the latest Polymarket odds tell us about the shutdown timeline?
1:14–3:39
3
Why is the Australian dollar outperforming other major currencies today?
3:39–7:12
4
Did the RBA’s hawkish remarks signal the end of its easing cycle?
7:12–9:57
5
How are rising bond yields influencing equity market momentum?
9:57–11:54
6
What are the Fed officials saying about future rate cuts?
11:54–13:52
7
How might UK fiscal policy and upcoming elections affect the pound?
13:52–14:16
8
What are the key take‑aways and outlook for the next market call?
14:16–14:21