Snowblind
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What is the overall market outlook for the week of January 19 2026?
Do markets really know how to react to Donald Trump's aspirations for Greenland with those threats of tariffs on his European allies who oppose his plans? Is it all to be taken seriously? And Kevin Hassett out of the running for the Fed chair job. It seems we're looking at how the markets have taken that. An intervention in the yen? Well, not yet, but maybe soon. And today, the World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos as well. It's all happening. It's Monday, it's the 19th of January. It's the morning call from NAP. Good morning. Well, the US dollar rose a little last week, up about one point one percent so far this month. The Aussie lost a quarter percent on Friday, around sixty six point eight US cents now.
The Yen up naught point three percent on Friday. Equities were weaker pretty much across the board. The S P, Nasdaq, DAX, FTSE one hundred, Hangsang, all down on Friday. Actually, the ASX two hundred was one of the few that actually was on the rise, but that could well change in the follow through. Today, perhaps. Yeah, treasury yields rose by five basis points. Aussie ten years are up three basis points on Friday to four point seven one per cent, up to four point seven eight per cent now, and oil a bit higher on Friday, 0.6% higher for Brent, 0.4% for WTI.
How might Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland and the threat of EU tariffs influence global equities and currencies?
WTI is still below 60 a barrel though. And gold and silver lost grand. In fact, uh silver fell more than four point four percent on Friday. Uh but it's fair to say there's a bit of uncertainty. Around as we kick off this week, let's uh talk about it with Nab Sally Old. Uh Sally, two words. Greenland and tariffs. I mean, this threat to impose ten percent tariff on European countries that don't support Trump in his endeavours to own Greenland, uh rising to twenty-five percent if they haven't changed their mind by June. I mean I would imagine markets are finding this so bizarre. How do you actually respond to all of this?
Yeah, good morning, Cruel. Well, it's gonna be interesting, I think, but you know, we just need to bear in mind that I guess markets probably feel like we've been here before. Um and and so uh, you know, we don't actually know whether um these will actually take effect. So I guess, you know, we do know that Trump has a pattern of behaviour which I guess you could summarise as escalate to de escalate. So you get the big headlines, uh, but ultimately, um, you know, they're they're more uh of a threat rather than uh reality. So I'm not sure that we're gonna see a a huge reaction in markets to this. Uh notwithstanding that, uh, you know, some of the comments from European officials, whether it was the the French president or uh the president of the the European Commission, um, you know, I think uh
s sort of revealed that they're sort of very shocked uh and and extremely surprised that that was the headline that came out.
What are the implications of the shifting Fed‑chair race between Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh for interest‑rate expectations?
So uh we will wait and see what happens. Um but, you know, I'd imagine, you know For for markets that have generally traded with a reasonably positive tone so far this year. So equities are up, as you say. Um, you know, some of the the other risky assets are are doing reasonably well. Um, you know, maybe this just gives everyone uh just a little little reason to pause. But my sense is I'm not sure this is gonna be a huge deal. And and don't forget also, you know, we're we're going into a long weekend in the US, so bonded stock markets are will be closed there this evening for the Martin Luther King Jr. uh holiday. So that will probably mean that uh I guess we watch European markets to see, you know, what what any reaction might be.
But I suspect it it'll probably be the line a along the lines of European currencies, you know, a touch lower relative to the dollar.
Yeah. I mean it's just ki uh purely coincidental timing that uh Europe finally signed that deal with um South American nations on on Friday. This is a deal that's been taking uh the best part of a quarter of a century to try and arrive at. Uh so I think they actually inked that on Friday, didn't they? So they now have this free trade deal with uh most of South America.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the overall market outlook for the week of January 19 2026?
0:02–1:12
2
How might Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland and the threat of EU tariffs influence global equities and currencies?
1:12–2:45
3
What are the implications of the shifting Fed‑chair race between Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh for interest‑rate expectations?
2:45–4:04
4
Why did U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and commodity prices (oil, gold, silver) move higher this week?
4:04–5:45
5
How could Europe’s new free‑trade agreement with South America affect the euro and Euro‑zone markets?
5:45–7:11
6
Is the Japanese yen poised for official intervention after recent finance‑minister comments?
7:11–8:31
7
What do the latest U.S. industrial‑production, NAHB housing‑index, and PMI data tell us about the economy’s momentum?
8:31–10:34
8
Which key economic releases (China GDP, Canada CPI, World Economic Forum) are shaping market sentiment this week?
10:34–12:14