Stop the Boats
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What is the overall market outlook at the start of the Tuesday morning call?
The US blockade of Iran is in place and after an initial negative reaction markets seem to be quite positive about it. Perhaps because they think it's gonna bring things to a head. Or maybe it's because who knows what to think. It's Tuesday, it's the fourteenth of April twenty twenty six. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, oil prices are higher today, up two percent for WTI, four point one percent for Brent, but both still below a hundred, although Brent wasn't far off a hundred and four earlier in this session, so it's come back down. The US dollar is down a little on the DXY, but the Aussie dollar uh is up naught point four percent to almost seventy one US cents now. Shares are basically higher in the United States, but lower in Europe, with the S and P up half a percent, the Nasdaq climbing.
Point seven percent, but a naught point four percent drop in the Eurostocks fifty, and bond yields well basically lower in the United States but higher in Europe. So 10-year treasury is down uh two basis points, German ten-year bundles up four basis points, the same in France and uh much of the rest of Europe actually. So here's Nab's re Atral. I mean that that's been quite a climb back in equities in the United States after a bad start to the session because we had the initial reaction. To the president's plan to blockade the state of Humuz, which is happening now, it seems, and yet shares a clear
It certainly seems that way. Yeah, good morning, Phil. But um I'm still you know trying to get to the bottom of quite the turnaround and I guess the obvious sort of news story, if there is one, that's driven this, is, you know, President Trump claiming that um the right people from Iran, basically, have reached out on the telephone effectively and uh are keen to resume peace negotiations. Now um you know, we do take those things, th those sort of claims with a pinch of salt as we've learnt to, and uh I've not heard anything formally uh from Iranian officials to to corroborate that. But um it does seem that that markets are are are willing to take uh whether you call it a Panglossian view that um you know the blockade uh aimed obviously
How are rising oil prices affecting WTI and Brent benchmarks today?
Yeah, um restricting the flow of any Iranian ships um coming out of Iranian ports. Um and obviously a lot of that uh oil in particular is destined for China. So perhaps the view is that this will um you know this will put um China in the mix in terms of putting pressure on Iran basically to uh to come back to the table and try and strike a deal because obviously they're one of the countries that will suffer most economically either from higher price prices or simply the lack of uh of Iranian crude for which they've been the main buyer. So um, you know, who knows? But um, you know, certainly, you know, the markets are speaking, and as you say, quite a dramatic turnaround in stocks. Look at the Aussie dollar, which um I think quite rightly was kind of the whipping boy as we're used to calling it first thing um Monday morning in response to the the lack of any um you know success in in peace.
negotiations and then the blockade announcement, you know, has touched seventy one cents in the last half an hour or so. So um you know continuing to yo yo with um with risk sentiment and volatility in the oil price where that sort of near ten percent uh jump that we saw at the open yesterday has has pretty much been halved in the last uh couple of hours. Well I guess that
And it what has been removed is the doubt as to whether it's gonna work or not, because initially I mean it started at midnight our time, uh, and the Wall Street Journal is saying fifteen warships are in place and there's no activity uh in or out of any Iranian ports. So, um yes, maybe this blockade's gonna work. Maybe that's you know the market is saying, Well perhaps this is the only way.
Uh well that's um you know that is the view at least anyway. So uh if uh you know the US uh or or Gulf State is unable to move uh any of uh oil designated for uh for for Asia and rest of the world out, then um well let's stop Iran doing that and maybe that does you know maybe that does help bring the the stalemate, even though in the short term of course, you know, the lack of any oil transiting the uh the straits or any other uh goods fertiliser
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the overall market outlook at the start of the Tuesday morning call?
0:01–2:03
2
How are rising oil prices affecting WTI and Brent benchmarks today?
2:03–4:27
3
Why did the Aussie dollar jump to 71 US cents amid the US‑Iran blockade?
4:27–6:37
4
What is the Bank of Japan signalling about future rate moves?
6:37–8:26
5
How might Hungary’s election results impact European defence stocks?
8:26–10:08
6
Why did New Zealand’s services PMI fall to 46 and what does it mean for the economy?
10:08–11:37
7
What do China’s March credit‑growth numbers suggest for global growth forecasts?
11:37–13:32
8
What warnings did Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey give about financial‑stability risks?
13:32–13:42