Talk of Talks
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What did the early market snapshot reveal about oil, equities and currencies?
Well, Mark, it seemed fairly optimistic today because maybe no boats have been sunk in the Hormuz Strait. Maybe that's it, and there is talk of more talks between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, the IMF has revised its forecasts, and world bankers have been giving their interpretation of the economic consequences of the war, plus the latest business and consumer confidence numbers for Australia. It's Wednesday, it's the 15th of April, 2026. It's the morning call from now. Good morning. Well, big falls in oil prices. WTI is down over seven percent today, Brent down four point six percent, down below ninety five a barrel now, and a naught point three percent drop in the US dollar, a half percent lift in the Aussie dollar, which is now up to seventy one point three US cents.
Bond yields are falling down four basis points for ten year treasuries, down seven uh basis points for ten year bunds in Germany, down nine basis points in France and the UK, Danny Levin in Italy, and big rises in US equities this session. The Nasdaq is at one and a half percent, up for the tenth session in a row, one point one percent higher for the SP. Uh in Europe, a one point three percent rise in the DAC, similar rises in France and Spain, uh just a quarter percent rise in the FTSE one hundred in the UK. And here's NABS Taylor Nugent. So look at that. Optimism in equity markets. Actually, the SP, for example, is not far. Of its all time high and government bond yields falling. So uh aga and a j uh obviously a hope that we're gonna see through the worst of this and it seems like a bit of an adjustment for inflation expectations in in amongst all of that as well, perhaps.
So you know, none of it's gonna be that bad. Yeah, good good morning, Phil.
Certainly markets seem to be looking through the the near-term disruption towards the the prospect of some kind of resolution that that eases those those physical constraints on on oil. And then you know, m the market optimism that you you mentioned there, continued risk on tone seems to be uh reflecting that in terms of kind of you know the detail of what what they might be responding to. So there's certainly reports that the US and Iran are looking to arrange a a second round of peace talks. Talks in the coming days. And so the idea there would be to have another round of talks before the end of that that current ceasefire. And you know, feeding into that positive uh sentiment as well was um you know suggestions that Iran uh may be holding off sending ships through the strait in the short term, so effectively trying to avoid any any kind of test of of the US blockade to maybe you know try and
Yeah, well supposedly six merchant vessels um were told to turn around and they did and otherwise as you say nothing has passed through so the naval blockade is working for the moment which is just as well really because can you imagine what would have happened if they, for example, shot at a Chinese vessel? That would um that would be World War Three, wouldn't it? So thank goodness nothing's happening there. Uh so meanwhile, I mean so that's good. We wait and see what happens. Perhaps at the weekend if that's when the talks are. Uh and Antonio Guterres has been saying in the last hour or so that he thinks talks will resume through Pakistan. Because it would be unrealistic to expect such a complex problem to be settled in one round, is basically what he's saying.
Uh so um let's have a look at all the local stuff then. A sharp fall in confidence in the Nab Business Survey for March. Um but business conditions held up.
Yeah, that's that's right. So, you know, the that business survey for March, you know, the first uh one to have kind of a you know a clear post conflict read if you like. And so we did see, you know, a pretty immediate reaction there. Um confidence fell twenty nine index points to to minus twenty-nine. Um, you know, that's uh historically large fall, you know, outpaced by March twenty twenty in in COVID. But but other than that, it's about as as bad as it's it's
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