Talking Turkey
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Why is the US dollar weakening and how does it affect global markets today?
A weaker dollar, falling share prices. Is it just the end of the month? Uh coming a bit early because of Thanksgiving. Let's look at that today. Plus the latest on the RBNZ, Aussie inflation, and a chunk of data from the United States as well. Plus the inflation number starting to come from Europe today. And what's Michelle Bullock got to say for herself? We'll find out later today. It's Thursday, it's the twenty-eighth of November twenty twenty four. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, the US dollar down 0.9% this morning on the DXY, falling below 106 earlier. That is still six percent up on the end of September, though, just to give you some perspective. The biggest move against the US dollar has been the yen.
It's up one point three percent, the euro is up naught point seven percent and naught point nine percent for the pound. The Aussie, meanwhile, up just naught point four percent. A bad day for US stocks, although things improve later in the session. The Nasdaq down 0.6%, 0.4% for the S P and 0.3% off the Dow, all of those down, but the Russell 2000 up by 0.1%. In Europe, a 0.6% fall in the Eurostocks 50, a 0.3% rise in the FTSE 100, the CAC Current down 0.7%, and bond yields falling down five basis points for 10-year treasuries, down six in the UK, down three for ten year yields in France and Germany. Brazil up thirty one basis points to thirteen point one two percent. They've got budget problems over there.
They basically want to cut tax and increase costs. They're gonna be giving more details about that. The Liz Truss approach. And oil was lower, bouncing back now though, uh flat for WTI and up naught point two percent for Brent. Brent now just under seventy three about
What is driving the thin trading and market rotation in US tech stocks?
Carroll. So it's been a while, but uh Ken Compton joins me from NAB in Sydney. And the news seems to be for whatever reason, Ken, tech stocks taking a hit, particularly for big tech. Uh so the Magnificent Seven down quite a bit today. And you know, I mentioned the Russell two thousand, a little bit of a rotation going on because that's managing to to stay in the green. What's happening here? Is it just a bit of uh adjustment for end of the month? Everyone's sort of like getting in early 'cause of course it's a it's a shortened week 'cause of uh Thanksgiving, so I guess we're sort of like as close as you can get to the end of the month really.
Yeah, in morning fill. It is indeed pretty thin trading out there across nearly all uh all all all asset markets this week, especially those in the US obviously related to the holiday. So yeah, I I've got no particular insights as to as to why tech's doing what it's doing, but certainly um it's it's thin trading that that's playing into one. What are probably looking to be decent size moves across most markets off relatively modest drivers. Like even if we look at you know bond yields, obviously f there's been fairly large moves there. Ten year Treasury's down seven basis points and you know you can point to some elements of the data out overnight being weaker but but those moves are probably a little bit bigger than you might necessarily expect.
So with a with a holiday tonight and a short day on Friday it's yeah I'd I'd I'd put it down to thin markets in in to a large extent, but there are a lot of decent fundamental drivers as well. Well.
Yeah, well we'll maybe we'll come across those. I mean and th similarly for currencies, so It's just an adjustment, isn't it, for the US dollar. It's been getting stronger, it had to had to give way at some point.
Yeah. Um obviously d d d dollars been pulled around a lot by sentiment around US uh cab cabinet picks, yeah, particularly the the Scott Percent announcement last week and uh and then the uh the the Truth Social tweet on uh Canada and Mexico's um tariffs related to drugs and and and immigration. So just proving that um th there's a lot of volatility from that. I mean, even if you sort of pull apart some of the moves against the U US last night though or y or yesterday, I mean obviously the yen a big mover, as you mentioned.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is the US dollar weakening and how does it affect global markets today?
0:01–1:42
2
What is driving the thin trading and market rotation in US tech stocks?
1:42–3:56
3
How are US core PCE inflation numbers influencing Fed rate‑cut expectations?
3:56–6:19
4
What did the RBNZ’s latest decision and Governor Orr’s comments signal for New Zealand rates?
6:19–8:15
5
Why is the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel warning about limited room for rate cuts?
8:15–10:46
6
How is Australia’s CPI and subsidy landscape shaping RBA policy outlook?
10:46–13:26
7
What can we expect from RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s Thanksgiving‑day speech?
13:26–15:38
8
Which upcoming data releases (CapEx, construction, European CPI) should investors watch next week?
15:38–16:49