Tariffs back at 10 percent, AU inflation out today

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NAB Morning Call 15 min 2 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 19 days ago
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How are President Trump's 10% tariffs affecting global markets?

Phil Dobbie 0:01
So President Trump's tariffs have kicked in at 10%. No word on when they'll rise to 15%, and not much market reaction to that, or anything else really, except a fall in the yen. We'll look at the reason for that. A quiet session data-wise. But today the monthly CPI for Australia and Michelle Bullock talking tonight, hot on the heels of those inflation numbers, and the State of the Union addressing the United States in a few hours. So get the popcorn ready. It's wet. Wednesday is the twenty-fifth of February 2026. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, US equities are having a good session. The NASDAQ is up over one percent. The SP up 0.6%. The rise was strongest in those consumer discretionaries that everyone was shying away from at the beginning of the week.
Phil Dobbie 0:44
Not quite so much excitement in Europe, though. Movement in bond yields is minimal. Aussie 10 years at 4.71% on futures this morning. The US dollar hasn't moved very much on the DXY, but it's been balanced out by a 0.6% fall in. in the yen and a rise in most other major currencies. So the Aussie is up 0.2% to 70.7 US cents. Yet the Swiss franc almost up as much as that, and the pound up a quarter percent as well. And oil is down half percent or so. Brent just over seventy one a barrel. Spot gold down one and a half percent, although silver is still climbing. That's up one percent this morning.

Why is the Japanese yen falling amid tariff news and rate‑hike concerns?

Phil Dobbie 1:20
Skymasters joins me from Sydney this morning. So that ten percent tariff now effective from the US, there are exemptions, but it it seems places that thought they had a deal like the UK have now seen their tariffs go up. Australia Well we're where we were, aren't we? Ten percent unless the the the fifteen percent tariff is introduced and there's no word on even when that'll happen. Uh Australia is pretty much where it started from.
Skye Masters 1:44
Good morning, Phil. Yes, you are you are correct. Um we we are at at ten percent. There was um sort of discussions earlier in the week that that our tariff or the tariff on Australia would have been lifted to fifteen percent. But overnight the the new tariffs that Trump announced have come into effect and they're currently at the ten percent level. Um, there are reports that Trump's administration is still working on changing that tariff to 15%, but to date there's no formal order on that or or date on that. So so for now 10%. Um I am reading there are sort of reports that the EU's assessment of President Trump's new tariff policy suggests it will result in tariffs on some of the EU exports, including cheese, to to be above the level agreed to on the US EU trade agreement.
Skye Masters 2:33
So um sort of hence hence I guess why the the EU Parliament has has halted um uh work on on improving the the tr the trade deal there.
Phil Dobbie 2:44
Yeah, and the UK, I think they 'cause they were exempt, uh I think they've had a ten percent tariff as well. All those state visits and meetings with the king and all that sort of stuff amounted to naught. Uh so the yen, the uh the biggest mover uh because of reports well two things the the reports in the Japanese press that Sunai Takeichi uh met with Governor Uraidi from the Bank of Japan last week, uh but only just reported and expressed concerns over the possibility of more rate hikes. But also uh China has banned the export of some critical minerals and and other good goods that could have military applications uh to several major Japanese companies as well. So a bit going on uh with Japan right now.
Skye Masters 3:24
Yes, you're correct, Phil. There is there is a little bit going on.

What does the rebound in US consumer confidence indicate for the economy?

Skye Masters 3:26
So Japan sort of is in the headlines overnight. Um as you said, you know, I think China has expanded the companies that it's blacklisted. I think it did s announce something earlier in the year, but overnight it's sort of said it's blacklisted twenty Japanese entities, including the top Japanese military suppliers. Um sort of covering shipbuilding in aeros aerospace, um, which I think Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is one i is affected. Um while it's also placed an additional twenty entities on on watch, including Automakers, Subaru and Hi Hino motors.

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