Tariffs. Here yesterday, gone today. What about tomorrow?
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Are the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico being removed permanently?
So the twenty-five percent tariff might be off the table for Canada and Mexico, hopefully forever. But the ten percent tariff against China, well that's in place. And let's remember the US has a had trade deficit with Mexico and Canada as well, so maybe a lesser TAF will happen. But if that's the case, why not the EU as well, which has an even bigger trade surplus against America? But that's not gonna happen in a hurry. So how is the market reacting? And in the background, it's job stay. This week for the United States, starting with Jolts overnight, which has shown a surprising fall in job openings. It's Wednesday, it's the fifth of February 2025. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, a week a US dollar today is one percent lower on the DXY, below one hundred and eight now, obviously still quite elevated given it was hovering just above a hundred back in September.
The Aussie is up half a percent to just below sixty two point six US cents. The euro is up naught point four per cent, naught point three percent uh higher for the pound, the Canadian dollar up naught point eight percent, the Swiss franc up naught point six percent. Uh US equities are climbing at the close up naught point 3% for the Dow, 0.7% for the SP, and 1.3% for the NASDAQ. In Europe, a 0.9% rise in the US stocks fifty and a 0.2% fall in the FTSE 100. We've also got the Alphabet earnings that have come in after the close of the US, 96.47 billion. 96.2 was expected, so that's a beat. The earnings per share, $2.15 against an estimated $2.13. And yet the share. Share prices down in after hours trade.
Cloud revenue fell short of expectations, but we had better Google ad revenue. But the market is looking at the cloud, hence the share price down about four and a half percent on the release of those results. Bond movements have been quite constrained. Ten year treasuries are four basis points lower at four point five one percent.
How are global bond yields responding to the latest tariff news?
UK ten year guilt yields up three basis points, but most of Europe uh is up or down by just one basis point, an Aussie ten nine years uh this morning around four point four six percent. That's about five basis points higher than they were at the end of the day yesterday. An oil is split. We've got WTI down nine seven per cent. It was heading lower, but then President Trump indicated that it was going to get tough on Iran to try and stop them exporting oil altogether. And WTI went from around seventy seventy to around seventy three twenty, but it's taken a bit back from that now. Brent mean Meanwhile up naught point one percent, again falling back from the rise after that Trump announcement. So Nab Sky Masters is with me today.
So some definitive answers, Sky, uh in a month's time, does Donald Trump uh say that, you know, now the troops are on the borders uh north and south, that those tariffs have gone away and they will never come back, and so we can all rest in peace on Come?
Um I that's a very hard question to um to to answer with you know with with a strong a strong view. Um Who who knows, Phil? But at at the moment, um, you know, the Trump has postponed those tariffs, um, as we've been told, you know, Canada Canada and Mexico are are sending their troops or frontline troops to their borders to try and um limit, you know, the the or or work on um limiting the the move of fentanyl and um and um and i immigration. So so so let's let's wait let's wait and see um how successful that is. But for now um that appears to be the case and you know you are seeing um markets reacting to that um and you know concerns over over tariffs easing. Um but I really, you know, who who who knows for
Yeah.
And it doesn't mean I mean that's the that's the twenty five percent tariff. That doesn't mean there's not a ten percent tariff that comes on later or you know more uh to handle, which you know Donald Trump has been talking about for longer than fentanyl, which is the trade imbalance. So uh uh the US has got a hundred billion dollar um deficit against Mexico, about half that for Canada, double that for the EU, uh and we know he doesn't like that very much.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Are the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico being removed permanently?
0:01–1:45
2
How are global bond yields responding to the latest tariff news?
1:45–4:05
3
When will the next tariff decisions be announced and what might they entail?
4:05–6:11
4
Could a direct call between Trump and Xi de‑escalate the US‑China trade tension?
6:11–8:39
5
Why are bond yields volatile while equities surge after tariff news?
8:39–10:42
6
What do the latest vacancy‑to‑unemployment ratios indicate about US labor market tightness?
10:42–12:28
7
How is lingering tariff uncertainty affecting business confidence and future investment?
12:28–14:15
8
What are the expectations for New Zealand’s labour market deterioration?
14:15–15:29