Terry Haines on Trump’s Strategic De-escalation
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So what next for Iran and what next for Donald Trump? Markets have been buoyed this week by hosts though the Iran war will soon be over and more importantly the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Is that false optimism? Or are we at a turning point? Are markets right to move in this direction? And does that mean just returning to a world where all we seem to care about was tariffs, inflation and AI? That's this week. The morning call from NAB with Phil Dobby. Mm-hmm. The weekend edition. Very simple question, isn't it? Where two from here for the United States, for Iran, and for the world, as markets do seem to be embracing the hope that this war in Iran will soon be over. So we've had a couple of sessions showing oil down, equities up.
Does that continue into next week? Or is it, in other words, the proverbial storm in a teacup? Well, Terry Haynes is the founder of Pangea Policy, which is an advisory firm specializing in macro. And politics, those two inextricably linked right now. Uh Terry, I mean, we are at a slight disadvantage with this podcast because we are doing this just before Donald Trump's speech today. So actually, the only people listening to this podcast who don't know what he said is uh is you and me. And that's the problem with podcasting, isn't it? But I mean it it's fairly clear what he wants. Presumably uh he's trying to address the fact that politically this This is just not popular in the United States this war.
Well it's uh Phil, first of uh first of all, thank you for having me. I appreciate it. I've uh heard the podcast before and uh uh it's excellent. I always learn things. So uh I'll uh we'll break the rule this time, but uh there we are. Well we're here to learn from you
this time.
Yeah, exactly. Um yeah, I'm not one of these people who's often wrong but never in doubt. Uh you know, I've uh uh I frame uh one one of the ways that uh my work is uh distinctive is that uh I will generally frame by uh uh by degree of uh certainty. Right. Uh and uh I think I have a f I I think I have a fair degree of certainty about uh what President Trump will say uh this evening. Uh it's really two speeches in one for two different audiences. The first is uh is that there will be a uh there'll be a framing address to the U.S. domestic audience, which uh strangely he hasn't done, about what the uh what the war's purpose uh is and has been, uh, and uh and talking about uh how he's planning to end it and when he's planning.
Planning to end it. The other speech is going to be Trump making clear to an international audience, particularly the United States Gulf audience, excuse me, the United States Gulf Allies audience of Saudi and the UAE and Qatar principally, but others as well. uh who who want reassurance and I think we'll get reassurance from Trump uh that uh he's in this to uh to win it and uh they very much those those nations uh who are now designated as of last year as major non-NATO allies of the United States uh want Iran gone well want the current Iran regime gone um and he's gonna make sure that
That's two different messages, isn't it? So he's saying to people domestically, Hey, look, this is uh th we'll be out of this soon but for everybody else he's saying, I wanna finish the job which could take forever.
Well it could uh you know, I think what he'll want is uh he'll want more uh more participation from NATO allies. He'll want more participation from uh the UAE and the like. Um I think the way the White House looks at this is those messages are two messages that overlap uh but but have some uh dissonances within them. And uh and you know, exactly how he's gonna square that particular circle, I think gets in the speech.
Well, n a lot of people aren't keen to take part, are they? I mean that's been the evidence so far. And look we we had uh Gray Attrol, one of our contributors, talked about the Venn diagram of the demands but which are being placed by Iran and by the US. You know, you've got two circles that don't even touch, let alone overlap. Uh so he's gonna have to pull in uh help from outside, so we know that Pakistan's getting involved in the in this somehow.
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