The facts about Aussie employment
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Why did Australia’s unemployment rate rise above expectations and could it accelerate the next RBA rate cut?
So Australia's unemployment rate went higher than expected yesterday and more than the RBA was expecting. So does that bring forward the likely date of the next rate cut? We'll talk about that. Plus, the Bank of England will be absorbing a weaker than expected GD period for the UK. And normally we'd be talking about US CPI today, but that's been delayed and many other data sources cancelled. So, in amongst all that uncertainty, gold hits another high, and so does Silver. It's Fridays the seventeenth of October twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar's down 0.4% this morning, but the Aussie is also down. It lost 0.3%, down to sixty-four point nine US cents now, whilst the euro, the pound, and the yen are all stronger.
Ten year treasuries down four basis points and back below four percent. Aussie ten year yields are down to four point one six percent. Uh not much movement on that overnight. And weaker US equities with a 0.4% fall in the S S P. The Nasdaq. Ending up pretty flat. Oil continues to fall, 0.9% off Brent and WTI. Brent is now just over 61 a barrel, WTI below 58. Spot gold up over two percent, not far off four thousand three hundred now. Uh obviously that's another new record high. And silver is up three point four percent as well, also hitting an all-time high.
What does the surge in gold and silver prices indicate for markets amid the employment surprise?
And here's Nabsodrigo Catrill joining us today. Um We can talk about all of that, but we should start with uh yesterday's employment numbers for Australia, an unemployment rate of four point five percent. That was higher than anyone was expecting, I think.
Yeah, money field, yeah, that was definitely a a big surprise and and it did trigger a significant reaction in markets. Um it wasn't just us and the consensus as well. Uh it's probably worth adding that uh you know the RBA also had a view that you know basically the employment rate was going to be steady around four point three. Um so it it did it did sort of surprise market in terms of um uh putting Yet another sort of complication, if you like, in terms of the dynamics in the domestic economy. So um the the one thing to sort of stress about this is that of course we've got to remember uh the labor market uh data can be volatile from a month to month. Um so um we kind of need to sort of you know take a pause and and and see whether this is is reaffirmed or confirmed, if you like, in in the next sprint.
Uh but certainly in terms of What it means for for the RBA, it it it basically challenges the view that the the labor market is a little bit tight and and maybe there is a little bit more spare capacity in the labor market than uh previously thought. Um and then at the same time, of course, um it just basically uh pos poses a question in terms of what happens in November. You know, the the RBA is gonna meet and then Um will they consider a rake at then? Uh we think that right now, um, you know, the best course of action uh is to kind of wait and see to to get more information. We also gotta remember that uh between now and then uh we're gonna get the CPI print, which we expect to be quite a a punchy one if you like, for Q three.
Um so again, uh it will probably uh we we think that the RBA will will prefer to to wait and see uh for more details um before making a decision. Um saying that of course that uh you know undoubtedly um it is very likely that the RBA will sound quite dubbish rather than more cautious as they have been sounding in the past. So um it it certainly puts a like an interesting dynamic in this in terms of the domestic economy. We we saw pricing expectations now to
How is spare capacity in the Australian labour market being measured and why does it matter for the RBA?
to fully pricing a rate cut by December and and a a m a material move in in the front end of the curve. We saw the the three year yield um drop around thirteen basis points. So it has been a a meaningful uh if you like reassessment of the domestic economy.
So Nab's view then is uh that that still uh n not saying it's not gonna be May, but uh let's wait and see what the data provides before making a call on uh in
any direction. Yes. Um so for now we haven't changed our view.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did Australia’s unemployment rate rise above expectations and could it accelerate the next RBA rate cut?
0:01–1:21
2
What does the surge in gold and silver prices indicate for markets amid the employment surprise?
1:21–3:41
3
How is spare capacity in the Australian labour market being measured and why does it matter for the RBA?
3:41–5:12
4
What are the potential implications of the Trump‑Putin talks for global markets and Australian investors?
5:12–7:07
5
How is NAB’s view on the RBA’s rate‑cut timeline changing after the latest jobs data?
7:07–9:31
6
Why is the US CPI delay and Philly Fed manufacturing data influencing Australian market sentiment?
9:31–11:11
7
What risks do recent regional‑bank failures in the US pose for global equity and bond markets?
11:11–12:43
8
How is the AI‑driven rally in tech stocks affecting Australian market outlook?
12:43–14:22