The Great Crawl of China
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Why is China's economy struggling and when might growth return?
China needs some help to grow its economy, but when will we see that? But the latest data from Japan reaffirms the likelihood of a rate rise there this week. Canada's CPI prices actually went down in November, whilst industrial production picks up in Europe. Today we finally get the jobs numbers from the Bureau of Labor Research in the United States. Just for November, though, so you'll actually have to guess what's gone on since September. And Aussie consumer confidence as well. It's Tuesday, it's the sixth. 15th of December 2025. It's the morning call from NAV. Good morning. Well, US shares falling again, naught point six percent off the Nasdaq, not point two percent lower for the S P, whereas prices are higher in Europe.
The FTSE one hundred has climbed one point one percent, zero point six percent for the Eurostocks fifty, a small fall in the US dollar, a quarter percent fall in the Aussie dollar, just above sixty six point four US cents now. The yen is up naught point three percent. Not much going on with bonds today. Oil is lower though, one point seven percent off WTI, Brent down one and a half percent to 6020 a barrel. Silver is climbing back up again, up uh two and a half percent today. And here's Nabs, Rodrigo Catrill. Let's kick off with the China data from yesterday. Retail sales growth has fallen, I think, to the lowest level since twenty twenty two, one point three percent year on year, and a big drop in investment as well.
So clearly not much confidence around.
Um morningfield, yes. And and we could add to that also yet another decline in house prices. So uh the domestic demand and domestic activity of China is is really, really soft.
And that fall in house prices, I mean that just g that softens the wealth effect, doesn't it?
How does China's weak domestic demand compare to Australia's housing market recovery?
So no one's gonna be out spending.
Well yes, it's sort of an interesting if you like uh uh comparison to Australia. Here in Australia, um, you know, we've seen of course the RBA cut and and now the RBA is concerned about the inflationary pressures, but one of the issues has been sort of this big ramp up in uh house prices here in Australia, particularly in the smaller cities um such as Perth, uh you know, Adelaide and and Brisbane. Um and and that obviously has a has an impact on the consumer. The consumer feels a lot more confident and and you see that increase in in in activity, whereas in China it's literally the opposite. And what is also important to stress is that um not only uh since the September last year um uh policymakers in Beijing for one acknowledged the the weakness in domestic demand, two said that they wanted to stabilize house prices and and the policies to date have not been that effective.
Um and similarly when you talk about retail and and uh consumption um they have been um they have introduced m you know incentives But these sort of incentives of replacing your car or replacing your washing machine um a very, very short short ended period so so you see the small boost in consumption and then it fails again.
Well, actually they've bought cars, they've been trying to dump all those cheap electric cars they can't sell overseas. And so people haven't been buying petrol after they've got the electric car. So that's dip th that's that's impacted these numbers as well.
Yes, yes. Well um but there's a there's a war or a price war going on that uh between electric vehicles and and now the anti involution stopped the war. Uh but um um uh you end up with companies with overcapacity unable to lower prices. So um so it is it is it is a big issue. Um I what it is surprising to me is that we have very little reaction markets. Um you know the currency didn't really move that much and in fact the trend in in CNY is one of continuous strengthening, gradual strengthening against the US dollar, which um is is really a strategic sort of policy coming from Beijing as well.
So oil prices are low, aren't they? That's uh it's almost the only sort of like major move that we're seeing really in in in markets at all today. And that that could be because we're seeing softer data from China perhaps.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is China's economy struggling and when might growth return?
0:01–1:35
2
How does China's weak domestic demand compare to Australia's housing market recovery?
1:35–3:51
3
Why did oil prices drop as China's economic data softened?
3:51–6:35
4
Is the US labor market nearing an inflection point that could curb inflation?
6:35–8:50
5
What does the decline in new‑home builder confidence signal for the US economy?
8:50–8:55
6
How is Europe's industrial production rebound influencing the eurozone outlook?
8:55–11:58
7
Are green shoots emerging in New Zealand's economy after recent downturns?
11:58–14:38
8
Will easing wage growth and rising unemployment ease UK inflation pressures?
14:38–15:48