The only way is up
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What clues is the RBA meeting giving about future rate hikes?
The RBA meets today. They won't be doing much, of course, but maybe they'll give clues about when rates will go up in the new year. Bon Yields rose in Europe as one ECB member gave a clear indication that the easing is over and the only way is up from here on in. But in the US, we know rates are still falling. But how far? Even Kevin Hassett, expected to be Trump's top man for the Fed, is talking down, seeing too many. cuts next year. It all depends on the data, he says. And the NAB business survey today. What will it tell us about capacity utilization? The one thing that got the RBA worried last time, it's Tuesday, it's the ninth of December, twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning.
Well, shares falling in the US down naught point three percent for the Nasdaq, half percent off the S P, whereas comparatively small moves in Europe, except for the FTSE one hundred, which closed down a quarter per cent. But the moves have really been in bond yields today, up six basis points for ten years in Germany and France, up eight in Italy, five in the UK, and up four basis points for ten year treasuries. Aussie ten years were at four point seven percent yesterday, up another four basis points. Overnight. And the US dollar is up 0.2% this morning. The Aussie is down a quarter percent to sixty six and a quarter US cents. The yen is higher. It's up 0.3%. And quite big falls in oil as well, down 1.6% for WTI and Brent.
That takes WTI down below sixty dollars a barrel. So NABS Taylor Nugent is here this morning. It feels like uh Taylor, we start. every podcast lately talking about how bond yields are going higher.
How are global bond yields reacting to the ECB’s “up‑only” stance?
But you know, we have to because they are. Again. Yeah, good good morning Phil. Another another
move in in bond yields as as you say and you know I think just kind of reflecting that that you know broader theme at the moment that investors are kind of shifting uh around the world for a lot of central banks from you know when when and if a a little bit further easing might be required to to um you know whether some some tightening in policy is gonna be required by the end of twenty twenty six. And it was um Europe in in focus. It was Europe that kind of you know seemed to seemed to lead the the move on on Monday and you know, I think we can look to comments from E C B's Schnabel for um, you know, a little bit of the the proximate driver with, you know, not too much in terms of of other news flow.
Um
Well she basically said the next move is up, didn't she? Which I don't think I mean, certainly Christine Lagarde has been a bit cagey about saying that, but she pretty much came out and said it.
Yeah, so it was it was f some of the the more firm comments we've we've heard from from Schnabel. Interesting that she did seem to to get uh this kind of marker reaction 'cause she is, you know, well well known to be on the hawkish side of the the E C B committee. But you know, it was some of her kind of firmest comments to to date on that. She noted that um, you know, both markets and survey participants expect the next move is going to be a hike, albeit not any time soon, and added That I'm rather comfortable with with those expectations. So you know certainly um you know signalling pretty clearly that she w she anticipates that the next move is likely to be up. But you know, again, and this is still reflected in in market pricing in Europe, not not any time soon um on their forecasts.
Some of the things that she called out, she mentioned that the decline in in core inflation has stalled at a time when the economy is recovering, the Apple gap is is closing and fiscal. policy is is expanding. Um so that's you know something that she she noted there. She also noted that you know some of the the downward pressure on goods prices that has been you know really on the other side of the the kind of inflation dynamics in in Europe, some strength in services inflation but some downward pressure on goods from you know things like the stronger euro, cheaper energy, some rerouting from trade from China.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What clues is the RBA meeting giving about future rate hikes?
0:01–1:38
2
How are global bond yields reacting to the ECB’s “up‑only” stance?
1:38–3:55
3
What is the Fed’s projected path for rate cuts and why does Kevin Hassett matter?
3:55–6:00
4
What will the NAB business survey reveal about Australian capacity utilization?
6:00–8:22
5
How are China’s export figures reshaping global trade dynamics?
8:22–10:44
6
What does the Chinese Politburo’s December outlook mean for domestic demand?
10:44–13:31
7
Why are Japan’s wage trends and inflation pressures influencing BOJ policy?
13:31–15:45
8
What are the key takeaways from today’s central‑bank communications and market expectations?
15:45–17:00