The R word
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What did the RBA decide about interest rates and why was it a close vote?
Recession. Michelle Bullock said it's not the aim, but it might be necessary. It was uh one of the takeouts from yesterday's RBA decision. Meanwhile, market sentiment is still positive globally, despite nothing moving on the wall. More attacks, no movement in the strait, not a lot of progress. And coming up, we've got the Bank of Canada and the Fed. It's Wednesday, it's the eighteenth of March 2026. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. So oil is back on the rise. Another two percent or more added to WTI and Brent. Brent now close to 10250 a barrel. Shares are generally higher. We've got a half percent rise in the Nasdaq and the Eurostocks 50. The S P is up a third of one percent. The DAX is up 0.7%.
Feather falls in bond yields, down another two basis points for 10-year treasuries, down eight basis points for UK ten-year guilts, and uh much of Europe is down at least five or six basis. basis points and a small fall in the US dollar, a half percent rise in the Aussie dollar, it's up to seventy one point one US cents, much smaller rises in Europe. And Nab Sally Old joins me today, so it's a real mixed bag this morning. We've got oil rising, but shares are up, and and so is the Australian dollar.
How are global markets reacting to oil price movements and the Middle‑East conflict?
Yeah, good morning, Phil. I think that's uh, you know, for the Aussie dollar, I think we'll put that one aside and and maybe say there are some domestic factors that are probably helping the Aussie outperform. Um, yeah, and and oil, as you said, up a little bit. Um, but risk sentiment, you know, it started the week on a positive tone and it feels like that's continued uh into the second trading session uh of of the week in offshore markets. And I suspect, you know. There wasn't much in the way of significant news or developments around the Middle East conflict overnight. So maybe investors just sort of trying to look through some of the short-term noise, uh some of the short-term gyr gyrations in the oil price, uh, and focusing on effectively, you know, the the while there wasn't a lot of data out overnight.
The general story has been that uh, you know, whether it's the Chinese data or even US economic data, what we do know is that before the conflict, actually the global economy looked like it was ticking along pretty nicely and maybe that's given uh investors some competence
And it's really wait and see, isn't it, as far as to what happens in the Gulf. So uh I mean Israel says they've killed Iran's security chief. The US President has been lashing out at NATO countries for not supporting him, and Joe Kent has resigned as the director of the US National Counter Terrorism Center, saying that he can't support the war because uh Iran is p posing no immediate threat to the United States. I guess all of that perhaps just increases the uh the the President's resolve. evolve, so markets just waiting to see what happens next.
Yeah, I think so. I mean, you know, that that's a really neat little summary of everything that happened overnight and I guess markets really struggling to take much direction from those developments uh at all. And so it just sort of feels like we're in a bit of a a more of the same with investors probably not not so sort of clear on what the end game is here or what the path to resolution might be. Uh and I s I guess in the uh absence of any other information, uh or any other sort of directional impetus on markets. Uh, you know, I think we've just had a bit of follow through from Monday tonight's session.
What did Governor Michelle Bullock say about a possible recession and inflation?
Yeah. Meanwhile oil ticks steadily higher. Uh so the RBA yesterday, you talked about well maybe there's a few domestic uh or one domestic event that might have influenced the uh the Aussie dollar. The RBA I'm sure is it. Uh so interest rates up a quarter percent. But interesting, I mean yields falling. Aussie ten years are now down to four point nine three percent, uh two years fell to four point five two percent yesterday, despite that uh rate increase.
That's right. And I think what was interesting, you know, certainly initially was that we got the decision rates were lifted twenty-five basis points, but in the statement it told us that it was at least uh on on first read a really close decision with five members of the nine member board voting for the twenty-five basis point increase, but four uh voting to leave rates unchanged that month.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What did the RBA decide about interest rates and why was it a close vote?
0:01–1:08
2
How are global markets reacting to oil price movements and the Middle‑East conflict?
1:08–3:06
3
What did Governor Michelle Bullock say about a possible recession and inflation?
3:06–5:02
4
Why did the RBA’s rate‑rise decision focus on timing rather than intent?
5:02–6:55
5
What are the forecasts for the RBA’s cash rate and the risks of higher hikes?
6:55–8:57
6
How are New Zealand’s inflation signals and food‑price data influencing forecasts?
8:57–10:33
7
What can we expect from the Bank of Canada and the Fed in this “mega week” of central banks?
10:33–12:25
8
Which other central banks are meeting this week and what are the key questions for them?
12:25–13:57