Too much AI? Will Trump strike Iran? China boosts iron ore.

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NAB Morning Call 15 min 2 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 19 days ago
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Why is Microsoft’s AI spending causing a market sell‑off while Meta’s AI‑driven ad revenue is rising?

Phil Dobbie 0:01
Microsoft hit today by what's seen as too much AI investment. Why are they so different to Meta? We ask. Is an attack on Iran imminent or will a nuclear deal be reached? We see the anticipation in oil prices today and rises in iron ore, all to do with China. We'll look at why plus heaps of data today, including Australian private sector credit. It's Friday, it's the 30th of January 2026. It's the morning call from NATO. Good morning. A big fall in US equities this morning. The Nasdaq has lost 1.4%, three-quarters of one percent off the SP. The DAX down two point one percent at the close in Europe this morning, and oil is much higher. Brent and WTI both up three point one percent. Spot gold down one and a half percent, but it did hit a new record high earlier, getting close to five thousand six hundred.
Phil Dobbie 0:52
Silver is up one percent and also hitting a new high. Overnight. The US dollar is back down, losing a quarter percent. It got close to ninety six on the DXY with the yen climbing a third of one percent. The Canadian dollar up naught point four percent, but very little movement in the euro or the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar around seventy point three five US cents now. And bond movement pretty slow post Fed. So 10 year treasuries down just one basis point, down one or two across.

What does the recent jump in oil prices reveal about U.S. pressure on Iran and the risk of a military strike?

Phil Dobbie 1:21
As well. Aussie 10-year yields at 4.83%. Bitcoin fell 5.5% against the US dollar this morning. And NABS Rodrigo Catrill is with me as well. So let's start with shares, Rodrigo. So Microsoft and Meta Earnings both had strong revenue growth. Meta shares are up 9.2%. But look at this, Microsoft down almost 12%. They are hammered. Because they are spending uh more than expected on AI and there's a question mark about the short term revenue that's going with that.
Rodrigo Catril 1:52
Uh morning field, yes. Uh it was a pretty spectacular decline and you know Bloomberg's highlighting that is is close to the biggest decline that it was recorded during the pandemic. So it's it's pretty significant. Um and uh to your point, notwithstanding the fact that actually uh at least at the hand headline level it did beat uh revenue expect expectations. Um looking at the details, there there are concerns around the growth in it's a sure cloud Business. Um so there's concerns that that it will slow down a bit. And and I think that the general theme here is that uh the market is certain certainly very sensitive to to the level of AI expenditure and the lack of um you know near term revenue coming from from all these spendings.
Rodrigo Catril 2:35
So um there's certainly a little bit of a takeaway there that the degree of sensitivity is is significant and and will play To the volatility in markets even over coming quarters as well. And then Meta is the flip side to all of that, which is beating revenues and they're spending as much money. But yet on the revenue side, Meta continues to actually outperform.

How could a new nuclear deal—or a Trump‑backed deal—change the outlook for oil and geopolitical risk?

Rodrigo Catril 3:00
So it's so it's it's a significant contrast, notwithstanding the fact that both companies are are doing relatively well when you look at the revenue headline.
Phil Dobbie 3:07
Yeah, yeah. And we got Apple tonight, so let's see yeah what that adds to the story. Uh so oil uh well Apple actually after the close in the United States, so in a couple of hours. So oil rising, uh, because there's this increased speculation that the US is going to do something militarily against Tehran, uh or you know, uh or nuclear deal. Come to a new come to some sort of nuclear deal or we'll bomb you, basically the message. Uh yeah, you could have sworn that they Yet there was a deal, uh a nuclear deal, uh that Donald Trump backed out of. But so maybe he can have a new deal that will be stronger with um less caveats to it. And maybe this can all be stopped, but perhaps it'll be stopped after a warning shot or two.
Phil Dobbie 3:48
I guess that's what the market's looking at.
Rodrigo Catril 3:49
Uh yes, but uh when particularly when you look at the the big jump in in oil prices, I think the market is is getting a little bit concerned on on what's going on. Um you know, but there was quite a bit of commenting yesterday on the on the pizza index in the Pentagon.

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