Troops. Attacks. And Oil Back on the Rise.
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How are rising Middle East tensions driving oil prices and central‑bank policy shifts?
Well it ain't over till it's over, and it's looking like that might take some time. So do central banks that have thought they can look through the temporary first order impacts of rising oil prices now have to start looking at secondary order impacts of a longer war. Because more troops, more attacks. That was the news overnight. It's Wednesday, the 25th of March, 2026. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well the US dollar is up this morning, up naught point six percent this morning to ninety-nine point five on the DXY. The Aussie is down one percent to sixty-nine point four US cents. Again, it is the biggest mover of the major currencies. And oil is rising again, four percent added to WTI, three point six percent for Brent, which is nearing a hundred and four a barrel.
It has eased off a little from its earlier rally. US equities are falling, naught point eight percent off the Nasdaq, not point four percent. Lower for the S P. But in the UK, the FTSE one hundred is up 0.7%. The Eurostocks 50 is also marginally up. The DAX is marginally down. And bond yields are higher, up seven basis points for ten year treasuries, between two and eight basis points across Europe. Aussie ten years finished down yesterday by seven basis points at five point zero four percent.
What does the U.S. deployment of 3,000 troops to the Middle East mean for markets?
This morning on futures though, back up seven basis points to five point. And NAB Sky Masters is here today. So this unease has been heightened by a Wall Street Journal report that's out this morning, just in the last hour or so, that the US is to deploy 3,000 soldiers to support operations against Iran. A written order, whatever that entails, is expected within hours. Meanwhile, Iran has been busy launching fresh attacks against Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain. Ukraine and Saudi Arabia and Israel is uh saying it's gonna take military control of a large part of southern Lebanon as well. Sky, I look at all of this, I don't see anything there that says de escalation, and uh look the markets are responding to that.
Yeah, good morning. Good morning, Phil. And as as you've highlighted in your summary of price action overnight, we've had a bit of a an unwound of the positive sentiment that you saw in the in the previous session. And you know, sadly it's it's the news headlines on on the tensions in the Middle East which continue to drive in investor sentiment and I guess a little bit of a a choppy session for equities overnight. But you know, as you said, bond yields have pushed higher and what's been in focus obviously in the last of an hour or so is that Wall Street Journal article that you just you just mentioned about the US deploying um more troops over to the Middle East.
And I guess the question is no one knows how this is gonna end. So we've got Donald Trump asked uh, you know, how he s who's gonna take charge and he's there saying, Well it'll be you know, maybe it'll be me and whoever becomes the ayatollah We know that there's supposedly talks going on. The Wall Street Journal again is saying that the the mediators th th those talks have been through Middle Eastern mediators and those mediators are very sceptical because both sides are so far apart, perhaps because the Iranians don't want Donald Trump in charge. So I mean how it all ends, we don't know. And also, you know, the control that Iran still has.
How will Iran’s new $2 million transit fees for vessels impact oil shipping costs?
So so Tehran has said they're gonna start charging um fees. Fees, transit fees for vessels to pass through the state, you know, uh the straits, so two million dollars pair voyage. It's not much take up so far because I just had a look at the map and there's still nothing going through there. Uh but anyway, the impact of all of this of a longer war obviously is more inflation and greater expectations that uh central banks will be responding to that. So I think that the next Fed move, you know, there's more talk or more expectation now that. So that's gonna be perhaps it's gonna be a rise, not a cut.
Yeah, look I think there's there's a m massive or h really high degree of uncertainty feel at at the moment. No one knows how this war is going to end.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How are rising Middle East tensions driving oil prices and central‑bank policy shifts?
0:01–1:11
2
What does the U.S. deployment of 3,000 troops to the Middle East mean for markets?
1:11–3:07
3
How will Iran’s new $2 million transit fees for vessels impact oil shipping costs?
3:07–4:52
4
What do the latest PMI reports reveal about inflation pressure and slowing growth?
4:52–6:26
5
How are central banks reacting to second‑round inflation risks from the conflict?
6:26–8:33
6
What does Australia’s February CPI tell us about upcoming inflation trends?
8:33–10:00
7
How are PMI and sentiment data shaping market expectations amid the crisis?
10:00–11:19
8
What are the implications of the newly sealed Australia‑EU trade deal for exporters?
11:19–12:15