Trump’s man for the Fed
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Who is Stephen Miran and why is he called Trump’s man for the Fed?
On Friday, we found out who is going to fill in in the vacant role of the Fed. Very much Trump's man. On Saturday, we got China's inflation data, and we saw just how much disinflation there was in producer prices. We also heard about the planned Trump-Putin meeting in Moscow. And this week, well lots really, apart from that meeting and whatever comes out of it, and probably not much. There's the RBA, Aussie Wages data, the NAB Business Survey, US CPI, retail sales. For the US as well, and so much more. It's Monday, it's the eleventh of August 2025. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. It was a good week for the Nasdaq last week. It hit a new all time high, up three point nine percent over the week.
The S P gained two point four percent at home, just a one point seven percent lift in the ASX two hundred last week, after losing naught point three percent on Friday. The Eurostocks fifty finished the week up two point one percent. The US dollar lost a quarter percent on Friday, and over the week down another one per cent on the DXY, below ninety eight point two. Now doing the best last week, the pound up one point three percent, the Aussie up three quarters of one percent at sixty five point two US cents at the end of the week. Biggest losers were the Norwegian krona and the Swiss franc, both down around half a per cent. And bond yields up almost seven basis points for ten year treasuries last week, but up eight for two years and less than three basis points for thirty years.
Meanwhile, up seven. for ten year guilt yields across the week. Aussie ten year futures down four basis points last week. And oil fell a fair bit as well across the week, down over five percent for WTI, down four point four percent for Brent, whereas gold rose two point seven percent, zinc was up three point seven percent, and iron ore up two point one per cent.
How might the upcoming US CPI and tariff data affect the Fed’s policy outlook?
So Monday morning, busy week ahead, let's kick it off with Nab's Ray Actual. Uh it is the start of a week that we'll see. That we'll finish with President Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Alaska. But I don't think we should get our hopes up on this, should we? Because the Russians have already said that they want Ukraine to withdraw from the parts of Donetsk and Lehansk that they still control, and Russia wants to keep all the land that they have occupied so far, which obviously Zelensky is not going to be happy with. So, you know, we agree to a ceasefire as long as you surrender. I mean w we're not going to see any outcome from this, are we?
Morning, Phil. I don't think markets are going to go into uh into those meetings with any great expectation that we're going to see um a breakthrough as far as the prospect of uh you know uh a a permanent ceasefire, uh etcetera. Mr. Zelensky obviously, or President Zelensky, should I say, was obviously out, uh corraling support from uh most European countries and and and getting that um in terms of saying that uh you know the borders are not up for uh are of n up for negotiation. So I really raise the question of to what extent um you know President Trump will be threatening, you know, m much more draconian sanctions against Russia if it um you know fails to make overtures towards um you towards peace.
So you know in that sense perhaps it it's somewhat binary. I certainly don't think markets are thinking that uh you know Presidents Trump and Zelensky and uh Putin sorry are gonna do some sort of handshake deal um you know without Mr Zelen President Zelensky being in the table. No. So No,
but it could go it could get it could go either way though, couldn't it? Because Putin could s uh 'cause Donald Trump could say, Oh well look, you know, we've got some sort of deal and Zelensky's not uh siding with it. He should have given uh ground, so we're you know, he could be back to saying, So we're not going to give you the sort of support that we have been giving, and therefore Europe's gonna have to step in. Or as you say, it could mean uh greater sanctions, uh secondary uh uh sanctions against Russia.
What impact could the Trump‑Putin Alaska meeting have on oil prices and geopolitics?
So it could go either way.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Who is Stephen Miran and why is he called Trump’s man for the Fed?
0:01–1:45
2
How might the upcoming US CPI and tariff data affect the Fed’s policy outlook?
1:45–3:37
3
What impact could the Trump‑Putin Alaska meeting have on oil prices and geopolitics?
3:37–5:29
4
Will Stephen Miran be in place for the September FOMC meeting and can he sway rate cuts?
5:29–7:42
5
How are China’s disinflation and US tariffs influencing global inflation trends?
7:42–10:29
6
What are the expectations for the RBA’s rate decision and its market pricing?
10:29–12:49
7
How might the new gold import tariff affect the US dollar and gold market dynamics?
12:49–14:34
8
What key labour‑market data this week could shift the Fed’s and Bank of Canada’s policy paths?
14:34–16:00