US earnings strong, future uncertain.
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Why are US earnings season and US‑China tensions dominating the markets today?
Earnings season has kicked off well in the United States, but still question marks over US-China relations and quite a bit said about that overnight. The data that we do have for the US isn't showing anything alarming. Uh in fact, a strong uh Empire State Manufacturing Report and the beige book is just out. We'll have a quick look at that today as well. Australian Labor Market data is coming up. It's Thursday, it's the 16th of October 2025. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, US shares are stronger this morning after a mid session dip. So the NASDAQ up naught point eight percent, the SP is up half a percent. The US dollar is down again, losing another quarter percent on the DXY, the Aussie marginally up, just below sixty five US cents.
The yen though up naught point four percent, the pound is up even more. European bond yields are lower, down four or five basis points in the UK, Germany and France, ten year yields down four basis points in Canada. As well. But ten year treasuries up just one basis point this morning, up two basis points for two years, pushing over three and a half percent. But that is coming from the uh lowest two-year yield since 2022. And oil low again, half percent off Brent and WTI. Brent has uh just climbed back up over sixty-two a barrel, spot gold this morning up one point four percent, so hanging around that record four thousand two hundred dollar mark, and he has nabs. Sally Ald in Sydney. So look, there might be some trepidation about what's to come with earnings, but bank earnings.
They've been really good so far, haven't they? So looking at the share price, Morgan Stanley shares up five point eight percent today, the Bank of America up four point one percent, both exceeding expectations.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. That's right. So um, you know, at the beginning of the earnings season, we've had uh, yeah, as you said, the banks reporting and generally the the theme there has been, you know, one of really strong uh results, basically helped by uh, you know, buoyant markets.
How are strong bank earnings influencing US equity performance?
So most of the big banks reporting that their their trading divisions have done very well, and then you add on top of that, you know, uh better IPO environment, M and A. deals um and so sort of not so surprising that the banks have have had a really good run. Um and I guess uh you know markets have had a a a really tremendous run, particularly in the last six months. I think I read somewhere the other day that this has been one of the best six month performances since the nineteen fifties. So I guess sort of shows you what rarefied air we are in market wise. Um But, you know, at the same time there's a lot of good news uh in in earnings expectations and in valuations and so not really surprising that um you know since the market took a bit of a tumble on those headlines around, you know, possibly US China trade relations escalating um in in the wrong direction, uh the markets broadly sort of traded sideways.
So I I think, you know, while we're we're sitting there watching the uh the earnings roll in, pretty happy with how uh financial sector has gone. But it'll be interesting to see uh I guess how some parts of the real economy are getting on because uh you know if we're if we're to think about sectors that are you know, possibly struggling a bit more under the shifts in US trade policy. It's probably not going to be the banks and it's probably not going to be the tech sector. It'll be, you know, I guess those stocks that are far more uh leveraged to what's going on in the real economy that that might give us a bit of a hint as to how corporate American
And obviously a a chunk of that relates to uh US policy on tariffs and the like, and the latest on that between uh the US and China. President Trump said China Purposefully not buying their soybean is an economically hostile act, so he's threatening not to buy Chinese cooking oil, which doesn't seem like a massive threat given that uh supposedly demand had been sliding anyway, but it was enough, I guess, to make uh people a little nervous.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are US earnings season and US‑China tensions dominating the markets today?
0:01–1:50
2
How are strong bank earnings influencing US equity performance?
1:50–4:25
3
What does the latest Beige Book reveal about US consumer spending and the labour market?
4:25–7:03
4
What impact could President Trump's soybean dispute and a potential US‑China truce have on markets?
7:03–9:15
5
Why is the Empire State Manufacturing Index surprising analysts this month?
9:15–11:03
6
How is mixed Chinese CPI data affecting global inflation expectations?
11:03–13:15
7
Could Japan’s upcoming election reshape Asian market stability?
13:15–15:43
8
Will Australia’s employment numbers trigger an earlier RBA rate cut?
15:43–17:09