US hope, UK fears, Aussie CPI

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NAB Morning Call 14 min 2 speakers 2 chapters transcribed 19 days ago
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Why are AI-driven stocks boosting US equity markets today?

Phil Dobbie 0:01
US equity is on the rise with AI behind a chunk of it. The enthusiasm has returned, it seems, whilst the UK is wondering what is around the corner with the budget. Will the Chancellor cut spending and raise taxes, which could slow growth, which is already stymied? Or will she borrow more and risk pushing bond yields higher between a rock and a hard place? An Aussie CPI today, what to make of the first monthly number? And the RBNZ ready for a cut. Good morning. A half percent drop in the US dollar on the DXY is below ninety nine point seven now. That's not helped the Aussie dollar very much though, because it's only up naught point one percent to sixty four point seven US cents. US equities uh have climbed back up again.
Phil Dobbie 0:45
Uh the S P is up three quarters of one percent, helped by Alphabet this morning, one and a quarter percent for the Dow, although just naught point four percent for the NASDAQ, but one percent for the DAX and naught point eight percent for the FTSE one hundred. And bond yield's Lower, pretty much across the board, down three basis points for ten year treasuries, down four for the UK, France, and Italy. Aussie ten years yesterday were at four point four two percent, only up one basis point from that overnight, and oil even lower, down one point eight percent for WTI, one point seven percent for Brent, which is now uh sixty two thirty, uh fifty seven eighty for WTI, while gold pushes higher and Bitcoin moves lower.
Phil Dobbie 1:22
And he has uh Nabs Rodrigo Cotrill joining me feeling a bit under the weather, but he's here. What a trooper uh joining us from Sydney. So if there's uh one thing better than NVIDIA doing well for tech enthusiasm, it's clearly NVIDIA being given a run for its money because Alphabet, which is really driving the shares today, uh have got a chip that might rival NVIDIA's, which might also be sold to Meta. Everyone's getting a bit excited about their Gemini three AI model as well, because it's doing all sorts of stuff with images and audio and video and can do uh th sort of digest extremely large documents all in one go, and therefore it's better at doing uh deeper reasoning. So yeah, they're doing well today.
Rodrigo Catril 2:08
They're doing very well. And and Warren Buffett is, you know, got four point nine billion stake in the the company as well. So it's all looking really, really good and very impressive. Um and if you if you want to add ev even more enthusiasm to to it, um, you know, the difference between Google and many other companies is that they're really providing almost like a vertical um supply when it comes to the whole AI revolution in terms of now the chips Um the models as well as you know the applications that will come through the models. So it is it is the real deal. Um and let's not forget that they also are in the driverless car units and they also have the cloud business. So it is it is a very, very impressive company.
Rodrigo Catril 2:50
Um and it's looking really good for them. So good on them. Um But uh but the the the thing to kind of revenue. And they've
Phil Dobbie 2:58
got a revenue stream as well, which could be which could easily be added to by all of this.
Rodrigo Catril 3:01
That's I mean
Phil Dobbie 3:01
exactly and they're a bit of a bar And they've been a bit of a bargain, you could say, as well, compared to, well, for example, Microsoft.
Rodrigo Catril 3:08
Yes. Um 'cause 'cause if you remember even a couple of months ago Google was still in this court case in terms of whether there was this anti monopoly case that uh could have potentially forced them to to break up, uh but uh now they don't have to break up. So it's um it's very, very uh looks very, very interesting. Um but um anyway the the point is that when it comes to the AI chips news, it's still kind of an specialized kind of chip. It's not necessarily a a competitor that is gonna take NVIDIA um you know, main business. Uh but it but it basically still pretty good news um for the company and and I suppose for for the industry as a whole. So you don't have one provider of AI chips.
Phil Dobbie 3:51
Meanwhile in consumer land, uh US retail sales for September a very small rise, just naught point two percent.

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