US ISM shines above war clouds
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Why are US equities and the Aussie dollar rising despite escalating Middle‑East tensions?
Well, a bit of a turnaround today, even as the war that's not called a war escalates further. US equities are back on the rise, the Aussie dollar is on the rise as well. And oil, well it's not coming back down, but it's not moved much higher. All this as NATO shoots an Iranian ballistic missile that's heading over Turkey. The US has sh uh sunk an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean, and President Trump promises to escort ships through the Straits of Hormuz, but nobody Is taking him up on the offer just yet. It's the morning call from Nab. It's Thursday, the fifth of march, twenty twenty six. Good morning. The NASDAQ is at one point four percent this morning. The S P has gained 0.9% in Europe, bigger rises, so one point seven percent gain in the DAX and the Eurostocks fifty in Spain.
Despite their tete tete with uh Trump, their shares are up two and a half percent today. That contrasts with the sharp falls we saw in Asia yesterday, including that three point six percent fall in the NICI and uh a big fall in South Korea as well, which we'll talk about in a second. European bond yields uh Uh ever so slightly lower. Ten year treasuries are up just one basis point to four point oh seven percent. Aussie ten years uh were down two basis points yesterday to four point seven four percent, but up to four point seven nine percent now on futures, and the US dollar has fallen a quarter percent on the DXY, the Aussie has risen half a percent, up over seventy point seven US cents, the Swiss franc is also up, and the yen is up half a percent, and oil very small.
Moves in WTI and Brent. Still heading up though. Brent is just shy of 81.50 a barrel. Spot of gold though is back on the rise, up 0.9%, still way off that late January peak, of course. And Bitcoin has climbed 7%. It got over 73,500 overnight. So here's Nabs Ken Crompton. I guess investors are just taking stock of the situation, obviously aren't they? They um, you know, it they're probably saying, Well, look, it doesn't really impact the the tech industry in the US, so their shares are up. Discret good consumer discretionary is up a a a lot as well.
How did the ISM Services index and export orders signal strength in the US economy?
Their shares are up about two percent. So that's the US. Still a different story in Asia. Uh so South Korea, the the share market yesterday had the worst day ever.
Yeah, some extreme amounts of volatility coming out of the the Cosby, the the major index in South Korea. And uh good morning, Phil, by the way. Um I think we've now seen declines there over the past couple of days. I think another fourteen percent yesterday. That's added up to twenty percent uh over the course of a couple of days. But the scale of the mostly AI driven uh frenzy that's that that that's been affli afflicted in the Cosby this year means that despite being down twenty percent the past couple of days, You're actually still up twenty percent for the year because we're uh up nearly fifty percent for the year um as as of a few days ago. So big swings and roundabouts there. I think there is a lot of leveraged money at play within the um with within within the Korean market and there's a lot of leveraged on mine.
So in that sort of environment, when there is a bit of a move down, things can tend to accelerate and and that seems to be what's going on there.
So it's gonna be interesting to see what m markets in Asia are like today, given that it's been has been such a good session in the United States, and that is because you know the US is a long way from Iran, and hey look, here's some good data. So the ISM services data can
Came in very strong. Yeah. Um the inde the headline index there up to fifty six point one. So quite a quite a strong number in an outright sense. Um and even looking amongst the um you know looking amongst some of the detail on the on your on uh on on the ISM there, you know, two two point five point gain in in business activity, the new orders component up five and a half. So, you know, so you can certainly s um draw some draw some
And export orders from forty five to fifty seven point two. So what's that?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are US equities and the Aussie dollar rising despite escalating Middle‑East tensions?
0:01–1:56
2
How did the ISM Services index and export orders signal strength in the US economy?
1:56–3:51
3
What explains the widening gap between US ISM data and PMI readings?
3:51–6:25
4
Why did South Korean markets experience a 14‑% plunge and what role did AI‑driven volatility play?
6:25–8:51
5
How are China’s official PMI and the private Caixin PMI diverging, and which should investors trust?
8:51–10:50
6
What impact could the Iranian‑Iranian conflict have on oil prices and global market sentiment?
10:50–13:11
7
How does Australia’s latest GDP and household consumption data affect RBA rate‑rise expectations?
13:11–15:25
8
What are the implications of upcoming US jobless claims, Eurozone unemployment, and global tariff talks for market outlook?
15:25–16:27