US Ready to Open, Aussie confidence climbs, UK employment glum
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What did the NAB Business Survey reveal about Australian business confidence?
Aussie business confidence is holding up just a slight fall in yesterday's NAB business survey. Consumer confidence has bounced back sharply, and in the US, well, they could be open for business very soon. We'll look at what new data to expect. When, as the government reopens, and in the UK, we're looking gloomy, unemployment higher than expected, and heightened expectations for December rate cut by the Bank of England. It's Wednesday. It's the twelfth of November twenty twenty five, it's the morning call from Nav. Good morning. Well, US equities uh falling a little. Well, for the Nasdaq anyway, that's down a quarter percent this session, but the Dow is up one point one percent. European equities are generally up as well.
The US dollar fell naught point two percent. The US bond market was closed for Veterans Day, whilst in the UK ten year guilt yields fell seven basis points. Good reason for that, which we'll come to. The euro is up naught point three percent, the Aussie is down a little below sixty five point three. US cents now and oil quite a bit higher. One point seven percent for Brent, one point six percent for WTI. Brent uh now over sixty-five a barrel. And here's Nab's Taylor Nugent enjoying his new life in Sydney. Uh look, uh we'll get onto the uh the Australia stuff very quickly. First of all, though, this drop in the Nasdaq, um we saw a three point one percent fall in Nvidia shares today. So Softbank sold a bunch of its shares, five point eight billion, uh, 'cause it wanted to move that money to put it into open AI and needed the cash.
So is that what's driving this? We're just seeing of 'cause generally shares are confident. It just feels like this one transaction has overshadowed everything else.
Yeah, good morning, Phil.
How are US equity markets reacting to the latest Nasdaq and Dow movements?
I think, you know, the the kind of broad summary here is that most of that optimism alongside US government shutdown progress that I'm sure we'll we'll talk about soon as well, that we saw on on Monday has been has been largely held on to. Um but as you say, kind of it is the big tech and Nvidia especially that is um, you know, underperforming today after after noticeably outperforming uh uh yesterday and certainly not going um not unwinding. finding the that outperformance yesterday even. But um yeah, that proximate cause looking at Nvidia is that that story around soft banks selling at stakes to to free up money to to look elsewhere. So, you know, I think that has been a bit of a drag on on NVIDIA and and, you know, big tech underperforming a little bit today after leading games yesterday.
Yes.
Softbank have been in and out of Nvidia, actually. In fact, if it hung on to their original stake, it'd be worth $210 billion. So maybe they should have just stuck where they are. There's a lesson there somehow. Look, the NAB business survey yesterday, nice result. Confidence is down a little, but activity is rising, capacity utilization is higher, forward orders are stronger. Prices are falling. Actually, curious with all of that, the confidence would be falling. It sounds like uh it's still above the long long on average. But it all looks like good news, doesn't it?
Yeah, reasonably constructive news from the Nab Business Survey. As you say, confidence um did fall two points in October, but it does remain um a little bit above its its long run average and has, you know, noticeably held on to its its improvements through mid 2025. Business conditions were were up a bit plus um up two points to plus nine, and they're driven again by trading conditions and profitability. And so um, you know, certainly business conditions have have strengthened. And and where they are at the moment is pretty encouraging that that we should see that improvement in growth that we've seen sustain. But again, under the hood there, trading conditions, profitability leading, outpacing employment.
So employment had been more resilient coming out of the NAB business survey and those business conditions subcomponents. But it hasn't picked up the same way over the past kind of six to twelve months as what we've seen in in trading conditions of profitability alongside that pickup in activity.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What did the NAB Business Survey reveal about Australian business confidence?
0:02–1:40
2
How are US equity markets reacting to the latest Nasdaq and Dow movements?
1:40–3:48
3
Why did SoftBank’s sale of Nvidia shares impact tech stock performance?
3:48–6:34
4
What does the latest NAB data say about capacity utilisation and activity in Australia?
6:34–8:36
5
How is the sharp jump in Australian consumer confidence explained?
8:36–10:45
6
What are the implications of the recent ADP payroll figures for US labour market outlook?
10:45–12:42
7
Why is the UK unemployment rate higher than expected and what does it mean for the BoE?
12:42–14:38
8
When can we expect the next wave of economic data after the US shutdown?
14:38–15:41