US vote to open, high for Aussie housing investment
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Why is Australian housing investment hitting a record high and what does it mean for the RBA?
Confidence is now so strong in this country that the Aussie housing investment just hit a record high. Does that sound like an environment that the RBA would want to introduce rate cuts in? Well, if they want more numbers, they'll get the employment data today. And this is likely to be the day that the House in the US votes to open up Parliament. In a few hours, in fact, may the data flow begin? Well, maybe not, it seems. We'll tell you why that is in the next 10 minutes. It's Thursday. It's the thirteenth of november twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nav. Good morning. Big falls in oil today, four point one percent off WTI, three point seven percent off Brenn, which is now below sixty-three a barrel.
The US dollar was climbing, but it lost all of its gains today. The Aussie is up a quarter percent though, just just north of sixty five point four US cents. Shares are a bit like yesterday, so the Nasdaq down half a percent, but the Dow up naught point eight percent, and uh uh also in Europe, the DAX up one point two percent. And Bond markets in the US back at it with ten year treasuries falling six basis points to four point oh six percent this morning. Aussie ten years this morning, pretty much where they finished up yesterday at four point three seven percent. And Nab Sally Ald is with me this morning. Quite a bit to talk about, but just quickly on oil, because that's the biggest mover overnight.
Uh we did have a stronger US dollar for a while, but not enough to drive oil down four percent. So theories about this?
How did the recent drop in oil prices and US dollar movements affect global markets today?
had a couple of reports from the EIA and the IEA. Uh if you're dyslexic, that's something to grapple with. But did they have did their comments and forecast did they have an influence?
Uh good morning, Phil. I think uh, you know, obviously a pretty decent move in oil. Uh what did seem to spur that was um a report from OPEC where they basically revised their estimates for the third quarter of this year uh for global oil markets, basically saying that, you know, previously they'd thought that uh there might have been uh a deficit, uh i.e. demand bigger than supply, uh and they've now revised That to um to think that there's actually a surplus of oil. Uh, and this is largely because US production uh of oil came in uh stronger than expected and and even OPEC itself uh actually increased their output by a bit more as well. So this notion that you know the the oil market still remains um very oversupplied um I think really
Clearly coming as a bit of a surprise to markets uh and and prompting that large decline in oil.
Uh the the EIA, presumably on the same forecast, the Energy Information Administration saying we expect global oil inventories to continue to rise through twenty twenty six, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. And that is exactly what happened. And then we had the IEA, the International Energy Agency, saying that oil and gas demand might actually continue to grow until twenty fifty, rather than peaking this decade. But I mean obviously that's far too long term for the markets to grapple with. That short term oversupply, isn't it? And uh just as an aside, good news for Australia, perhaps President Trump has added coal to his uh critical minerals list uh because it's needed to assist with steelmaking.
But let's let's look at closer to home. Uh Aussie home loans yesterday for Q three, a record high reported yesterday for new investment loans, up thirteen point six percent for the quarter. Pretty hard to say the economy is struggling when people are happy to borrow more, to invest more on housing, isn't there?
Yeah, these numbers were quite eye watering. Uh so uh you know fourteen percent increase in the third quarter of this year just in the number of loans.
What did the OPEC, EIA and IEA reports reveal about global oil supply and demand?
And if we actually look at the value uh of of what was um lent to investors, that was up almost eighteen percent in the quarter. Uh these are extraordinarily strong numbers. Um I think uh, you know, we do know in October the government um, you know, started It's 5% deposit for first home buyers scheme.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is Australian housing investment hitting a record high and what does it mean for the RBA?
0:01–1:23
2
How did the recent drop in oil prices and US dollar movements affect global markets today?
1:23–3:31
3
What did the OPEC, EIA and IEA reports reveal about global oil supply and demand?
3:31–5:53
4
Why are Australian home‑loan and investment‑loan figures surging and could they trigger policy changes?
5:53–7:31
5
How is the Reserve Bank of Australia interpreting the latest loan data and employment numbers?
7:31–9:28
6
What is the outlook for the US shutdown vote and the missing jobs/inflation data?
9:28–11:31
7
How might upcoming US, UK, EU and New Zealand economic releases influence central‑bank decisions?
11:31–12:53
8
What are the expectations for future rate moves in Australia, the US and Europe given current uncertainties?
12:53–13:44