Vive la révolution (of sorts)
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What is the opening outlook for global markets on Tuesday, 3 December 2024?
Well it's not quite a revolution in France, but it seems Maureen Le Pen would like to bring down the government, but will she or will that just make matters worse for France? Whichever, you can understand why it's not the first choice for investors right now for equities or bonds. Meanwhile, in the US, an economy going strong, evidenced by the ISMs overnight. So why hurry to cut rates? Well, there isn't one, it seems. And we'll look at Aussie data from yesterday and the start of the US job. Jobs data with Jolt's numbers tonight. It's Tuesday, it's the third of December 2024. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, the US dollar has leapt a bit higher this morning up naught point six percent today.
The Aussie is down naught point six percent to below sixty four point eight US cents, and the euro down three quarters of one percent. Small moves in bond yields, ten year treasuries up two basis points, uh four point one nine percent, German ten yields down six basis points, French yields up two basis points, and Aussie ten years finished yesterday at four point three three percent. On futures now a few paced uh basis points uh down from that at four point three percent. The S P has hit another high at close in the US. It's up uh a quarter percent. The Nasdaq has climbed one percent, also to a record high, and a not point three percent fall in the Dow, the Russell two thousand also down, but uh less than not point one percent, whereas we saw a not point nine percent rise in the Eurostocks fifty, a one point six percent rise in the DAX, but the CACA aren't finished
Flat and small moves in oil. WTI and Brent both marginally up. Uh Brent at seventy one eighty five a barrel now. And Nabs Rodrigo Catrill is with me today from Sydney. So let's start with the new news, first of all, Rodrigo. So US ISMs overnight, um, they look good, don't they? All around. I mean the the the headline number is higher, employment is up, although it's still below fifty. Uh new orders. are over fifty, so expanding and prices look like they've slowed. What's not to like in all of that?
And the employment index also ticked a little bit higher from, you know, below fifty. So um it's it's just another reminder that, you know, we've seen, you know, you the US dollar perform really well. Um we've seen um, you know, US research yields uh relatively quite stable. And a reminder that, you know, when you look at sort of the economic backdrop, the US economy continues to perform better than others. Um and it's also, you know um doing exceptionally better in terms of stability when you look at sort of the political terminal that's we've seen elsewhere. So um overall the the my the ISM manufacturing while still in contracting mode uh it has improved uh from previous months but also uh beating expectations as well.
Um so we have no inflation or a significant reduction in inflationary pressures coming from the from the survey. Uh while We also have an improvement in terms of their employment and and new order. So so it's a it was a pretty good story.
Yeah. And Raphael Bostik has been out. We've got more federal speakers, uh Fed speakers, we've got John Williams first off this morning. Raphael Bostik, not sure whether a a rate cut is needed this month or not. Uh and I guess it does all depend on the the jobs numbers that we see. The Joltz numbers uh uh overnight tonight and then obviously non farm payrolls at the end of the week.
Yes. And then we still got one more CPR as well just in front of of the meeting. So yeah, again, you know, unless we see a a an increase in in labor market weakness and um you know, a deterioration, those inflationary pressures, um, you know, it's difficult to um deterioration in the sense that it's it's it's proving to be sticky, um, you know, then the the argument for the Fed to post will will increase. So um so it it remains to be seen. But right now the the debate remains open and and the market's still sort of toying with this idea that maybe, maybe not. Um and uh currently the futures market is priced in sixteen basis points.
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