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Why is the RBA postponing its first interest rate cut beyond Q1 2025?
Australian unemployment numbers just don't want to budge, so that puts the RBA forecast a little out of kilter. And that's why NAV has pushed back its expectations for the first cut next year and questions whether in fact we'll actually see a cut at all next year. The Fed might cut in December, but their jobless claims and course C PPI numbers from the US yesterday might have you wondering whether that's wise. It could be a long time after that before we see the next cut. The message again is wait a little bit longer. It's Friday, it's the fifteenth of november twenty twenty four. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, a bit of movement on the US dollar again. It's up by naught point four percent.
It was up over a hundred and seven on the DXY earlier. Then it lost all of its gains. Now it's nearly back up there again. The US dollar is up over half a percent on the Japanese yen. The Aussie is down naught point six percent, the pound and the euro down just naught point four percent. So again a weak performance from the Aussie. And US stocks have definitely lost their enthusiasm. At the close, the Dow is down half a percent, the S MP has lost nort point six percent, the same for the Nasdaq and the Russell two thousand down one point four percent at the close. But Europe happier day. The DAC's up one point four percent, the Eurostocks fifty is up two percent, the FTSE one hundred closed up half a percent, and bond yields lower on both sides of the Atlantic.
At one stage we were down six basis points for ten year treasuries, now just one basis point lower, down five in Germany, six in France, down four in the
What caused the recent fluctuations in the US dollar, Aussie, and global bond yields?
UK yesterday Aussie ten year yields were up three basis points to four point six nine per cent, down six basis points on futures overnight though, so following the pack, and oil was lower again, but it's clawed its way back. So Brent now up naught point two per cent to around seventy two forty a barrel. And Bitcoin is down, it's lost two point six percent today, but that's a tiny insect bite on the massive growth that we've seen since the Trump news. I mean it's up thirty four percent basically since the fifth of November. So inequities at least has the Trump euphoria subsided already? Well, perhaps for a little bit. Curious that US equities are doing so badly and Europe is going in the opposite direction though, isn't it?
Here's JB Weir's Sally Old. So uh what do you make of it all this morning, Sally?
Well, I mean I guess it's been, you know, a a pretty um strong period post the US election for equities, particularly US equities and, you know, those sectors that are are seen to be, you know, very leveraged to um the new sort of economic environment and policy making environment in the US. So things like small caps and banks and energy. Um so they've had a pretty good, you know, couple of weeks and And I guess what we saw overnight is maybe just some exhaustion in that rally, you know, people saying, you know, we we made um a a a pretty tidy profit in a small amount of time, so maybe it makes um some sense to take some chips off the table. Um
Well the S and P got over six thousand, didn't it? That seemed to be the breaking point.
Yeah, that's right. And look it's you know, it's up twenty five percent um year to date, which is a phenomenal run, um, you know, particularly after last year's um rally as well. So, you know, US equities have had um a a really good period of considerable outperformance. Um and so, you know, I think in in in that sort of broader context and also the short term context, um probably not surprising to to see people take some profit and um maybe just e reevaluate um given everything we know now.
How did the latest US jobless claims and PPI data affect expectations for a December Fed rate cut?
Well, I'm not sure what the you know, if we actually know uh what's going next, do we? Uh we know uh a lot of the names now for the new uh Trump presidency, but uh what form it all takes. But we did get a bit of data yesterday and it was largely good, wasn't it? So initial jobless claims fell two hundred and seventeen thousand last week from two hundred and twenty one thousand the week before.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is the RBA postponing its first interest rate cut beyond Q1 2025?
0:01–1:26
2
What caused the recent fluctuations in the US dollar, Aussie, and global bond yields?
1:26–3:23
3
How did the latest US jobless claims and PPI data affect expectations for a December Fed rate cut?
3:23–5:35
4
What does the Fed’s rhetoric and market pricing suggest about the likelihood of a December rate cut?
5:35–7:38
5
Why might the RBA keep rates on hold through 2025 despite mixed labour‑market signals?
7:38–9:30
6
How are Australian labour‑market indicators influencing the Reserve Bank’s policy outlook?
9:30–11:55
7
What do consumer confidence and unemployment expectations reveal about household sentiment in Australia?
11:55–13:25
8
Which global economic data releases are shaping central‑bank decisions this week?
13:25–15:15