Waiting for the numbers
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Why are markets waiting for the non‑farm payrolls and NVIDIA earnings?
Well, markets seem to be waiting. No big moves today, but what are they waiting for? The US payrolls number this week, uh to see if that sheds any light on the December Fed meeting, or NVIDIA's earnings this week to see if AI has been a bit overblown. Meanwhile, Japan's GDP going backwards, Canada's CPI not coming down, and Europe may be doing a little better than we might have thought. It's Tuesday. It's the eighteenth of November, twenty twenty-five. It's the morning call from now. Good morning. Well, moves down for US equities this morning. 1.1% off the NASDAQ. All of this happening in late trade, 0.8% off the SP. In Europe, shares are well down as well. 1.2% off the DAX. Bond yields down a couple of basis points for 10-year treasuries.
Down four basis points for 10-year guilt yields, though. In the UK, Aussie 10 years were up four basis points yesterday to 4.47%, one basis point high. Than that overnight as well, and the Canadian dollar and the pound trekking alongside the US dollar, which is up slightly this morning, about 0.2%. The Aussie is down 0.7% to below 65 US cents, and not much going on with oil. So for most of the session, fairly quiet, no alarming moves, but stocks have started to sell off late in the day. But to keep us calm, here's Nabs Rodrigo Catrill, he joins us from Sydney. So it looks like everyone is waiting really, aren't they, for uh for the big numbers. Clearly, payrolls on Thursday and NVIDIA tomorrow. So it's a a bit of a wait and see session.
Um there is a little bit of wait and see, although um the price action in the last hours turned a little bit sour and and we're seeing all main equity markets in in in the US going red. Um and then when you see a breakdown of of that um performance, particularly in the S P five hundred, is the energy and IT and financial sectors that are dragging um the the index down. Um so it's a bit There's the there's information around hedge funds and there's quite a lot of hedge funds that have taken out their position uh in NVIDIA, so they're completely out of it. Um uh because of course NVIDIA is reporting uh tomorrow. Um so so the market is is a little bit jittery and nervous around um what that might entail and given the size of of the of the stock it it can literally move the move the whole market.
Um we also had news uh early on that um Amazon was uh for one planning to get involved in in the debt market as well.
How are US equity indices and bond yields reacting this morning?
Um so that's again sort of move moved things around a little bit. But um yeah, I I would say that, you know, as we head into into these reporting uh earnings from NVIDIA as well as the the retailers that will give us a sense of how the consumer is feeling, uh the market is a little bit nervous. Um and that's been reflected in those risk sensitive currencies like the Aussie.
And uh not a lot of excitement in the data we did get. So the Empire State Manufacturing Overnight, uh even though it was actually way better than expected. Uh the New York Fed's quick summary, the headline general business conditions index rose eight points to eighteen point seven. It's the fourth positive reading in the last five months. New orders and shipments increased significantly. The pace of both input price increases and selling prices increases slowed slightly but remained. Elevated. Capital spending plans grew. Firms expect conditions to improve in the months ahead. The firms were not as that optimistic as as last month. There we are. I've not left you anything to say. But I mean it was but it was a reasonably positive.
Thanks for it. A reasonably positive report.
I I do actually have something to ask. Yeah. Yeah. The so the the the the the survey is known for being quite volatile. Um and as you point out it did surprise expectations by quite a bit. Um but when you look at the data it's actually really probably worth pointing out that it's the fourth positive reading in five months. And as you described, um the the underlying sort of sub indices have also been very supportive. So um Um it seems a little bit too good to be true, but uh it's probably worth emphasizing that it's not a one off.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
Why are markets waiting for the non‑farm payrolls and NVIDIA earnings?
0:01–2:28
2
How are US equity indices and bond yields reacting this morning?
2:28–4:06
3
What is driving the nervousness around NVIDIA and the upcoming earnings report?
4:06–6:40
4
What did the Empire State Manufacturing and New York Fed data reveal?
6:40–9:05
5
What did Fed Vice‑Chair Philip Jefferson say about the pace of rate cuts?
9:05–11:25
6
Why did the Japanese yen fall after Japan’s Q3 GDP contraction?
11:25–14:09
7
How is the Eurozone’s growth outlook improving and what are the EU forecasts?
14:09–14:39