Walmart drags equities down, yields rise ahead of Jackson Hole
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Why did Walmart’s earnings miss drag US equities lower today?
It's Friday. Jackson Hole kicks off today. Last year, Jerome Powell surprised with a dovish pivot. Could the pivot be right back today? Meanwhile, equity's down because Walmart delivered a good top-line result, but earnings were down. Tariff-induced margin squeeze, perhaps, and mixed results from PMIs, but it seems on reflection more reasons for the Fed to cut than not. It's Friday, it's the 22nd of August, 2025. Well, US stocks are down again today. It's day three with naught point three percent off the Dow. This is at the close, naught point four percent down for the S P and the Nasdaq, although all of them were much lower earlier in the session, it's fair to say. Whereas in Europe the DAX has climbed a little, the FTSE one hundred is up a quarter per cent, but the Eurostocks fifty down naught point two percent.
Bond yields are pushing higher, ten year treasuries up four basis points to four point three three percent, up four. Germany as well, six in the UK and Italy, up five basis points in France, and Aussie ten years yesterday, down two basis points to four point two seven percent. Now on futures uh back around four point three four percent, so quite a move on futures overnight. The US dollar is up 0.4% on the DXY to ninety-eight point six. The Aussie is down just 0.1% to just below 64.3 US cents. The pound is Is down a quarter per cent, the euro a third of one percent down, the yen down two thirds of one per cent, and oil is higher, one point three per cent added to WTI, two percent more for Brent, almost at sixty-seven seventy a barrel.
And Taylor Nugent returns from his travels. Uh he's back with his feet behind the desk, he's been around Europe, uh but now he's back in Melbourne for NAB.
How are US job‑less claims influencing expectations for a September Fed rate cut?
So here we are. Welcome back, stocks falling. Yields rising just ahead of Jerome Powell giving his speech at Jackson Hole. So uh can we put two and two together and get five out of that lot?
Yeah, good good morning, Phil. Good to be back. Um yeah, I think a lot of a lot of the themes this week has been waiting to hear what um what J Powell says at at Jackson Hole. There's kind of you know that kind of uncertainty about where he sits in a pretty divided FOMC committee about the the near term path forward for for interest rates. I think, you know, we did get a few uh Fed speakers we heard from Hammock, we heard from Bostick, we heard from Schmidt as well overnight that we're all kind of, you know, not necessarily surprising, consistent with what they have said previously, but certainly demonstrating that there is that more hawkish side of the committee that is still worried about inflation risks, not ready to cut just yet.
And you know, one of the comments from Hammock specifically was that if the if the meeting was tomorrow, she wouldn't be wouldn't be ready to cut. And so there is still that that focus on inflation risk rather than the labour market there. And we also got kind of you know feeding into those themes. We got uh some US data, the PMIs uh in particular that were you know reasonably reasonably strong. Um and so not, you know, suggesting any kind of further near term slowing in in in growth and and still reflecting some inflation pressures that are that are there in the pipeline. So keeping all that alive and we saw Fed cut expectations for September paired a little further. So now back to eighteen basis points priced before we hear from
Fell.
But the jobs data, uh, you know, we would say would support a c a a cut, wouldn't we?
What do the mixed US and European PMI numbers say about near‑term growth?
Because the jobless claims, the initial claims uh shot up last week from two hundred and twenty four thousand for the week to two hundred and thirty five thousand, which I think is the highest since uh late June. And the continuing claims That's up to one point nine seven two million, uh so an increase of only thirty thousand, but it's only been that high, I think, once, and that was recently. Before that, you've actually got to go back to November uh twenty one uh to to to get a number that high. So that would be a case to say, well, okay, there's there's definitely uh a slowing happening in the i in the jobs market, and that would be a reason.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did Walmart’s earnings miss drag US equities lower today?
0:01–1:41
2
How are US job‑less claims influencing expectations for a September Fed rate cut?
1:41–3:11
3
What do the mixed US and European PMI numbers say about near‑term growth?
3:11–5:10
4
Is the Fed leaning toward a hawkish or dovish pivot at Jackson Hole?
5:10–6:36
5
What impact could Japan’s high CPI have on BoJ policy this year?
6:36–8:17
6
How will the delayed UK retail‑sales data affect market sentiment?
8:17–10:18
7
What insights will trade‑negotiator Dmitry Gozabinsky share on current trade deals?
10:18–12:06
8
What are the key takeaways from today’s market roundup and upcoming Jackson Hole speech?
12:06–14:14