Weak retail sales ahead of payrolls
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Why are US Treasury yields falling after flat retail sales?
Aussie business confidence improves a little but falls for the consumer. Retail sales are flat in the US and yields move down with questions about how quickly the Fed is going to move to their next cut. Today's biggest currency move is the yen. We'll ask why. And non-farm payrolls out in the US. Yes, on a Wednesday. Uh that's the biggie yet to come. It is Wednesday. It's the 11th of February 2026. It's the morning call from Nav. Good morning. Well, US stocks are still rising, although less of the new stuff, more of the old stuff. So the Dow is up half a percent to another new high. The NASDAQ and S P only up uh about one tenth of one percent. The MSCI World Index is actually up naught point three percent. That's hit a new high.
Uh it's up almost nineteen percent over the last year. Uh big moves for US Treasuries, ten years lost six basis points overnight, down to four point two four percent. Down three or four basis points across much of Europe. Aussie uh ten years fell four basis points yesterday to four point eight two percent. Uh that yield has fallen uh one or two basis points further overnight. As another on futures, another small move down in the US dollar, but the Aussie also down a quarter per cent. Uh the rise comes from the yen, it's up one point one percent at 154.2 yen to the dollar this morning, and oil falls again.
What is driving the yen’s unexpected rise against the dollar?
Half a percent off WTI. Brent is down 0.3%, just below 68.90 a barrel now. And gold down almost half a percent. Silver almost two percent lower, and Bitcoin, which has been behaving a bit like gold, really, hasn't it? Over the last uh week or so, it's down one percent, getting below sixty-eight thousand, obviously a long way from the hundred and twenty-five thousand it reached last July. And here's Ken Crompton. Um so that fall in trend. Treasury yields p in the US presumably because of the soft retail numbers that we saw there, basically flatlining in December and core retail sign uh sales have declined actually. So I mean it raises the question what's stopping the Fed from uh lowering interest rates?
Well that certainly is the question that that that does arise out of that. Uh yeah, there had been some expectations coming out of some strong credit growth data late late last year that that might be feeding through into the retail numbers, but yeah, but that's not not proven to be the case and you know the weakness across the retail sales was pretty broad, you know. Yeah, auto's down, you know, zero point two percent, you know, discretionary food down zero point one, you know, so nothing um you know nothing calamitous. But still this this broad based subdued subdued outcome there is Well actually
it was less clothes and cars, more DIY and sport, wasn't it? So, you know, at least they're getting active. That's the positive spin.
That is true. Uh yeah, building materials at one point two was something that's jumping out to me f from the table here. So the y you can look at that at that sector as being a positive. So uh but I mean in terms of the equity, the broader equity market reaction to that, obviously the mu the equities have chosen lower rates over over a weaker economy for the most part, and we haven't seen too much of it too much of a drift there. So you did actually ask about the treasury reaction, obviously, and that that was actually re reasonably sharp. Uh we've got Treasury it's down.
How do flat US retail numbers affect Fed rate‑cut expectations?
about about five basis points across the curve. Interestingly led led by the long end. Um so what the market has done in terms of its Fed expectations, the the pricing for a Fed cut by June is uh up a tiny bit, but still about twenty six basis points. So the market's not really pulling forward um expectations too much in terms of Fed cuts, at least in the very short term. But um but y but but yeah yields lower across the curve. And I mean a few Fed officials were relatively quick to to jump in and um yeah offer their broader views, not necessarily directly on the uh retail sales number, but uh but certainly more more generally. You know, um yeah, Lor Lor Laurie Logan said that the fall in inflation was really not enough for her to see a need for more rate cuts.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are US Treasury yields falling after flat retail sales?
0:01–1:19
2
What is driving the yen’s unexpected rise against the dollar?
1:19–3:03
3
How do flat US retail numbers affect Fed rate‑cut expectations?
3:03–5:35
4
What does the latest NAB Business Survey reveal about Australian confidence and capacity?
5:35–7:09
5
Why should we focus on the unemployment rate in today’s non‑farm payroll release?
7:09–8:57
6
How might Japanese fiscal policy and the yen’s move influence global markets?
8:57–10:34
7
What are the implications of China’s CPI and PPI data for Asian growth?
10:34–12:41
8
What are the key takeaways for the RBA and Australian housing credit from today’s data?
12:41–13:54